NOM

There has been a discussion going on over at MD&D about an article over membership decline. I will include links to the article and the blog for your entertainment.
There are a few predicable themes from the discussion: 1) the was prophecied by prophets of old and part of Gods plan…2) Satan and the spread of secularism, 3) the prophet is very aware and God is sifting out the tares. 4) talk about something else go totally sideline the discussion.

I think the church membership can be broken down into two groups: 1) members born into the church, 2) members converted into the church by missionaries (many from NOM).

The first group has a lot of boomers in it. I think this is the group holding the whole Shabang together. These are the people who believe in the prophets and care less about truth. As this group declines because of death, the number of life-long members will quickly decline. Millennials and Gen Z don’t care much for believing just because their parents did and are mostly out of the church anyway. Most of these members live in the USA.

The second group is converts. My experience as a missionary has been very, very, very few fully integrate into the church and remain active. I would be surprised if 10% converts are active after 5 years.
With these two groups of members, the church’s future seems bleak.

Thoughts?


https://www.wherewillyougo.life/mormon- ... e-by-2030/

https://www.mormondialogue.org/topic/74 ... /#comments

2bizE wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 3:30 pm The first group has a lot of boomers in it... As this group declines because of death, the number of life-long members will quickly decline. Millennials and Gen Z don’t care much for believing just because their parents did and are mostly out of the church anyway.

But some of those still remain in a PIMO holding pattern to avoid disappointing their parents. Once the parents are gone that pressure will be lifted.

2bizE wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 3:30 pm I would be surprised if 10% converts are active after 5 years.

Nevertheless, their names will remain on the records until they are 110 years old (IOW, long in the grave). The same will be true for the children of the boomers who fade away without resigning. It seems like the chasm between the number of members the church claims and those who actually show up on Sunday is just going to get wider and wider.

Hagoth’s comments reminded me of this Dialogue article which shows large discrepancies between the number of members the church claims vs the number of people who want to claim they are members.
In the early 2000s in Mexico and Chile the church claimed 4-5 times more members than themselves claim to be.

“ In 2000, Mexico's census reported 205,229 Mormons five years of age and older. (See Table I.)1 Yet for December 31, 1999, the LDS Church claimed 846,931. Even if one recognizes that the census figure includes only people five and older while the Church numbers include infants and small children, the difference is astounding and raises numerous ques- tions. These include the question of why Mexico's official census reported only 20-25 percent as many Latter-day Saints as the Church claimed.
In the spring of 2003, Chile published the results of its 2002 census. (See Table 2.) For the last day of 2001, the Church claimed 520,202 mem- bers in Chile while the new census identified only 103,735 members age fifteen and older. Again the variance is stunning. After accounting for the difference in ages covered, the census reports about 25 percent the number of Mormons that the Church claims.”


https://www.dialoguejournal.com/wp-cont ... N02_65.pdf

If a census asked my religion, even as an active member I wouldn't have answered that question.

2bizE wrote: ↑Sun Jan 30, 2022 6:22 pm In the spring of 2003, Chile published the results of its 2002 census. (See Table 2.) For the last day of 2001, the Church claimed 520,202 members in Chile while the new census identified only 103,735 members age fifteen and older. Again the variance is stunning. After accounting for the difference in ages covered, the census reports about 25 percent of the number of Mormons that the Church claims.

Apologists have claimed that foreign members are fearful of self-identifying because of the working relationship between the Church and the CIA, and the possible repercussions that might present with their own government. On the other hand, once the children are grown they realize their baseball membership conversions were never valid and so that is what they indicate on their census form.