NOM

Total convert baptisms for 2016 were 240k. From Reddit ExMo post, someone is claiming convert baptisms this year is down 30% from last year. We'll probably hear the number soon enough in April, but assuming its true, that would be approx 170k convert baptisms in 2017.

Just how bad can this statistic get before general membership realizes just how bad things are?

It's getting to the point that resignations will have a material impact on membership numbers. Historically, 10k in resignations wouldn't say much.

I dunno, we all get caught up in the doom and gloom that the church is suffering. We know it is, but not the details. How much farther can this train go on its current course?

Based on my interactions with members (from general in the pews members to local stake leadership types) they have a pretty good grasp of how bad it is.

General members know attendance is down and people are leaving. Stake leaders know tithing is way down, they know attendance is bad, the missionary program is struggling and that the church PR is taking significant hits.

The biggest problem I see is how they all interpret the statistics. Too many are blaming Satan and his minions.

My favorite time of general conference is the yearly realease of statistics every April. I wish they made material announcements in October also. I saw the same message on Reddit and I simply have to be patient until (presumably) March 31 when the next data dump is released. The church releases so few statistics and it's nice to get a small peak at LDS demographics.

I love watching the ratio between total church membership and LDS units. This should indicate the size of your average sacrament meeting attendance and instead gives a rough estimate of the rate of inactivity in the LDS church. A lot of units have been closed and moved around and it will look painful if (or when) these big numbers slowly creep back down.

Can't help thinking of one of those old time movies where finally there are only two guys left in an empty, non-descript room and one of them looks at the other and says "C'mon Jeffery, I know if we just give it the old college try one more time, we can still get the people to follow us and we'll be great again!" And Jeffery, with a beaten, hangdog look says, "I don't think so David.....I think we're done. Here's the combination to the safe. You can keep the rock. Turn out the lights when you leave kid...."

Palerider wrote: ↑Wed Nov 01, 2017 2:13 pm Can't help thinking of one of those old time movies where finally there are only two guys left in an empty, non-descript room and one of them looks at the other and says "C'mon Jeffery, I know if we just give it the old college try one more time, we can still get the people to follow us and we'll be great again!" And Jeffery, with a beaten, hangdog look says, "I don't think so David.....I think we're done. Here's the combination to the safe. You can keep the rock. Turn out the lights when you leave kid...."

Love this! Made me laugh out loud.

The thing is, even if the general membership were to begin to see the pattern of decline and see the bleeding, they simply do the mental gymnastics and spin it into the last days crap. The separation of the wheat from the tares and god thinning members down to the elect before the great and dreadful non-existent day of the Lord's coming.

That number I read yesterday about 80%+ of youth leaving the Church did not sound promising for sustained growth. It does not bode well for future Lamoni City, Florida development.

So I keep thinking about "even the very elect shall be deceived."

From the TBM point of view, they could think of Exmos/NOMs/inactives/apostates as deceived, but that also implies that those groups are the very elect. Or maybe it refers to the leadership of the church, who are the elect and deceived, but the members keep following because they're the elect, dammit! Or maybe, just maybe, TBMs know that it's all BS, but they allow themselves to be deceived because that makes them the elect.

I'm surprised this is from the Bible. This seems like the manipulative kind of stuff one JSJ would have come up with...

I am in a Queen Creek AZ stake, and the baptism number for the entire stake in 2016 was 9. We had been seeing upwards of 30 or so before IIRC. Of those 9, three of them were re-baptisms anyway. When I got released in Sept we were up to something like 7. Wards and Stakes keep splitting and there is lots of talk of "The Lord hastening his work" but its mostly from people moving in and buying cheap, big houses and the church making stakes and wards smaller. I also know of at least 5 or so resignations that happened recently so almost a net 0 on convert baptisms. President Eyring came here a few years back and prophesied that "Someing Big" would happen in Queen Creek and that this location was a "Gathering Place in Isreal"

slavereeno wrote: ↑Thu Nov 02, 2017 10:29 am I am in a Queen Creek AZ stake, and the baptism number for the entire stake in 2016 was 9. We had been seeing upwards of 30 or so before IIRC. Of those 9, three of them were re-baptisms anyway. When I got released in Sept we were up to something like 7. Wards and Stakes keep splitting and there is lots of talk of "The Lord hastening his work" but its mostly from people moving in and buying cheap, big houses and the church making stakes and wards smaller. I also know of at least 5 or so resignations that happened recently so almost a net 0 on convert baptisms. President Eyring came here a few years back and prophesied that "Someing Big" would happen in Queen Creek and that this location was a "Gathering Place in Isreal"

I'm nearby in Gilbert and have seen an identical slow down. The whole process of announcing, building, and dedicating the temple in Gilbert was a real high point to the church in this area. We even got our own new "Gilbert Arizona Mission". A bunch of ward members are ordinance workers in the new temple and many youth have fond memories of the cultural celebration and dedication of the temple.

One friend of mine works in the baptistry. All through summer 2014 it was standing room on and long wait times due to youth clamoring to participate in proxy baptisms. It was still heavy in 2015, but easier and in summer 2016 the wait times were reasonable. But during 2017 this friend of mine saw lots of down time when no one was in the baptistry. He was somewhat discouraged, but was glad to see a few regulars who showed up.

It's really hard to maintain enthusiasm for all this "hastening of the work" when the slow down is way too obvious. The motivation slogan of the church back in the 1970s and 1980s was Spencer Kimball's "Lengthen your Stride" and we don't hear about that any longer. I can only imagine the focus groups working on the next catchy T-Shirt slogan they need to get in front of the youth.

So is it just me, or does 240k convert baptisms last year seem like a high number? I was actually surprised to read it was this many. I know Africa is busy, but that's alot. And we know they didn't come from US/Europe/Japan- industrialized nations.

Corsair wrote: ↑Thu Nov 02, 2017 12:19 pm
I can only imagine the focus groups working on the next catchy T-Shirt slogan they need to get in front of the youth.

Bapterize?

StarbucksMom wrote: ↑Thu Nov 02, 2017 2:42 pm So is it just me, or does 240k convert baptisms last year seem like a high number? I was actually surprised to read it was this many. I know Africa is busy, but that's alot. And we know they didn't come from US/Europe/Japan- industrialized nations.

It's a large number but it's quite a bit smaller than other large numbers. As a percentage growth, it's 1.6%. It's the lowest growth rate since 1929. It's substantially less than the 587,234 converts in 1989, when the church was half its current size. That was an 8.7% growth rate.

It's still a lot of converts, but the rate has been declining since about 1990. It's been particularly noticeable in the past four years.

The church is far from any imminent collapse, but presumably they're concerned about the decline in numbers. If they're headed towards 170k, they'd end up with a 1.1% growth rate. Still growing, but definitely slowing. A few more years of that and they'd end up in negative growth, though they probably won't report that.

It does seem high to me but I served in a Western European mission.

Based on Wikipedia, there are 421 missions worldwide. That's an average of almost 570 baptisms/mission or an average of about 47 baptisms/month for the average mission? How does that stack up for others who served missions? I think my best year for a mission total was about 180 and I believe our best month ever was like 27 or something. And we were really excited about it.

I wonder how many are considered "quality" converts.

LaMachina wrote: ↑Thu Nov 02, 2017 3:18 pm It does seem high to me but I served in a Western European mission.

Based on Wikipedia, there are 421 missions worldwide. That's an average of almost 570 baptisms/mission or an average of about 47 baptisms/month for the average mission? How does that stack up for others who served missions? I think my best year for a mission total was about 180 and I believe our best month ever was like 27 or something. And we were really excited about it.

I wonder how many are considered "quality" converts.

We were pushing 125-160 bathisms monthly in Argentina in the early 2000's. High performing months would be near 200 total. A bad month would be 75-90

[/quote]Bapterize?[/quote]

I remember hearing the Ponderize conference talk and thinking "just kill me now"

I'm in the Kentucky area and we were just told they will be combining , redistributing, several stakes here in november. The Louisville stake had lost so many priesthood brethren that it was imperative to avoid a collapse. The net result for us will be a loss of two wards and getting two tiny branches in return. That means more callings per member in our realigned stake and a tougher time for all of us. Our baptisms are pathetic here. One family in the last two years, mostly older guys when they have sisters as a team, so teenagers, but no one sticks.

250 to 350 a month, I think occasionally over 400 in SLC in the early 90’s. We were supposed to be the highest baptizing English speaking mission. No idea what it is now. A lot of that was part member and less active children over 9 and not yet baptized, so that counted as a convert baptism.

Bummer. I hope the show is not coming to an end. I think it will be a little like that show the Bachelor (I've just discovered that show and I have been binge watching it with Sarah when its her night). Its probably going to spasm on for a long time.

In Southern Cal in the 1970's our mission set a goal to get 200 baptisms in one month. (We'd average about 120-150. We finally did it but the mission secretary later told me they counted baptisms from the previous month and the following month to do it.

Convert baptisms per missionary has dropped to 3.7 for 2016 compared to double that when I was on my mission in the 80s. I don't see that trend changing any time soon.

But I don't know if I believe the 30% drop that was posted on reddit. I guess we will find out next April.

Korihor wrote: ↑Thu Nov 02, 2017 3:27 pm We were pushing 125-160 bathisms monthly in Argentina in the early 2000's. High performing months would be near 200 total. A bad month would be 75-90

That was my experience a decade prior.

I doubt (there I go again) that the numbers will drop off 30% in one year. Maybe it will be one of those typical business things where you struggle to hit the numbers all year but always work some magic in the last quarter, right before the end of the fiscal year, to get better numbers in the books.

If true, I can't say that I'd be looking forward to church in 2018 and beyond. If the numbers really did drop 30% I can envision another wave of leaning on the members to get out there and bug their friends and neighbors to come to church. Just like with a business, the numbers are down - what are you going to do to bring them up?