***WARNING - LONG***
While the numbers on the roles keep increasing due to convert baptisms and children of record, these numbers are not translating well into active members as evidenced by the number of actual congregations. There can be little doubt that in major areas of the world, the church is, in fact, in decline. I offer for evidence the following:
EUROPE
In France in 2005 there were 126 units of the church, today there are 108 a 15% decline in the last 11 years
In the UK in 2005 there were 366 units of the church, today there are 333 a 10% decline in the last 11 years
In Germany in 2005 there were 177 units of the church, today there are 166 a 7% decline in the last 11 years
In Russia in 2008 there were 129 units of the church, today there are 103 a 21% decline in the last 8 years
SOUTH AMERICA
In Argentina in 2007 there were 867 units of the church, today there are 769 a 12% decline in the last 9 years
In Peru in 2011 there were 788 units of the church, today there are 749 a 5% decline in just 6 years
In Paraguay in 2010 there were 149 units of the church, today there are 137 a 9% decline in 7 years
In Columbia in 2011 there were 274 units of the church, today there are 256 a 7% decline in 6 years
ASIA
In Japan in 2005 there were 308 units of the church, today there are 264 a 14% decline in 11 years
In Korea in 2005 there were 150 units of the church, today there are 120 a 20% decline in 11 years
In Singapore the number of units have remained steady at 11, even though the number of members have declined by 7 in the last 3 years
Now could you argue that the numbers above have been "cherry picked"? Sure. There are countries in Europe, South America, and Asia where you could point to growth. But even there the real numbers are problematic. For example:
In Canada the church has added 13 units of the church since 2007, and average of 1.3/year. At the same time the church claims to have added 17,078 members or approximately 1,707 members/year. That would equate to Wards with approximately 1313 members/ward, and we all know that isn't true.
A similar situation occurs in Mexico where the church has added 54 units of the church since 2007, and average of 54/year. At the same time the church claims to have added 295,118 members or approximately 29,511 members/year. That would equate to Wards with a truly staggering 5465 members/ward! Not even remotely likely.
And while the US has seen some unit growth, it isn't really happening much outside of Utah:
Michigan has lost 14 units since 2007
Minnesota has lost 5 since 2010
Louisiana has gained 5 wards since 2007, but lost a stake - what?!?
Even Idaho, which has gained 50 units since 2010 claims to have gained 20,000 members in that time or 400/ward, which while possible still would indicate significant loss.
(All numbers above from Cumorah.com)
I think the above does indicate that intact, the church has a very significant problem. As stated earlier, while the numbers on the roles keep increasing due to convert baptisms and children of record, these numbers are not translating well into active members as evidenced by the number of actual congregations.
This means that there are significant problems in actually retaining converts of any sort. Why?
I believe that there are multiple reasons for this, and while the following is not an all inclusive list, I think that it is representative of some of the major issues:
1.
The church does not meet the needs of the members. In fact, the entire dialogue around the church centers on what the members could/should do for "building the kingdom." The members are there to pay tithing, do genealogical and temple work, home and visiting teach, hold callings, teach lessons, clean the building, wear helping hands t-shirts, etc. There is little conversation about what the church is going to do for the members.
The reason that nearly everyone has a smart phone in their pocket is because it works. It does exactly what it was advertised to do. It connects to the internet, allows me to communicate with others, and in general meets my needs. Hence, the vast majority view a smart phone as an investment. While it may cost some money, time, and effort, the payoff (what I receive from it) is greater than the sum of what I have to put into it. For many a college education is the same way. I invest my time, money, and energy in earning a degree that pays off in recognition, job advancement etc. The church however doesn't. There are a myriad of promises about spiritual edification, learning, being a better person. You even hear individuals talk about how wonderful it all is in testimony meeting, but there cold, hard fact is that it isn't. Offer to take the typical member out to lunch or to the temple and which do you think they would pick? Offer to take them to a movie at the local Cinemark or the one at the international house of handshakes and which do you think they would select? Why? Because simply put, the church doesn't deliver what it promises when it comes to meeting the needs of the members. Until the leadership decides to turn that paradigm around, they are going to have serious issues. It is why, you may get a convert by telling them how wonderful it all is, but once they see the reality, they are out the door.
2.
Honesty. The church isn't honest. Not even close. Not even when they try to be. The church released the essays precisely because they realized that members were beginning to explore aspects of church history that were not part of the correlated curriculum and that many of the actual/honest facts that were out there were contradictory to the established correlated curriculum. If they released the gospel topics essays individuals would be able to find the real data, from the church, and the church could then point to the essays as evidence that they weren't hiding anything. But even then, they couldn't do so honestly or with full disclosure. It is why we get things like this: "The youngest was Helen Mar Kimball, daughter of Joseph’s close friends Heber C. and Vilate Murray Kimball, who was sealed to Joseph several months before her 15th birthday."
(https://www.lds.org/topics/plural-marri ... o?lang=eng) The church simply can't find it in themselves to say she was 14 years old. While not a bit deal really, it is again indicative of the way in which the church handles honesty. They expect it from their members, but aren't willing to follow it themselves. (See point 1 above) Try going to tithing settlement and using the same statement about your finances with the bishop that the church uses with the membership in general conference and see how quickly you get issued a temple recommend - spoiler alert - you don't. But why not?
3.
The Spirit of Prophecy that only works when looking in the mirror. On the surface the church has a wonderful claim that not many other churches make (at least not so boldly). The church claims that the heavens are again open, that God again communicates directly with man through a living prophet on the earth today. Furthermore, the church claims that said prophet will never lead the church astray, that in fact he is incapable of doing so, else he would be removed out of his place by the very God that gives him utterance. Yet, when we example that we see the following:
First Presidency Statement 1949: "The attitude of the Church with reference to Negroes remains as it has always stood. It is not a matter of the declaration of a policy but of direct commandment from the Lord, on which is founded the doctrine of the Church from the days of its organization, to the effect that Negroes may become members of the Church but that they are not entitled to the priesthood at the present time."
Church Statement in 2017: "White supremacist attitudes are morally wrong and sinful, and we condemn them. Church members who promote or pursue a ‘white culture’ or white supremacy agenda are not in harmony with the teachings of the Church.”
Now imagine if you will, what would have happened if the first presidency would have made the 2nd statement in 1949. In hindsight, they would have looked brilliant, enlightened, inspired, perhaps dare I say it, like a prophet. Instead, they look like old men, desperately clinging to a failed ideology and blaming it on God. Will the same thing play out with women rights, gay rights, transgender individuals etc.? To believe that the church leadership has the spirit of prophecy is to believe that God is always 50 years late to the party. At the risk of being just a bit snarky, maybe it simply takes that long for the messages to get back and forth to Kolob.
4.
Mountains out of Molehills, while ignoring the real mountains. The church and church leadership is consistently asking the members to focus on the boogeyman around the corner. There is the concern about the Gays, or Porn, or Modesty. Heaven forbid someone takes a drink of Coffee. Alcohol is the devil in liquid form. We should be panicked because they want to allow girls in the Boy Scouts, or that a baker might have to bake a cake for two ladies that love each other. Most of humanity realizes that there are probably bigger fish to fry, and yet somehow the leaders and the church fails to see it.
People are being killed in Syria.
Children are starving in Yemen
1 in 5 adults has HIV/AIDS in Botswana
We have increased co2 concentrations from 280 to 400 ppm in the last century
Gun Violence kills more than 33,000 in the US each year
The rates of obesity and diabetes are increasing significantly in the US
When did you hear the brethren give serious voice to any of these issues? When did they propose any solutions? When have they put the church's vast resources behind solving any of these problems? The short answer - they haven't. Anyone paying even a bit of attention can see this.
At the same time, the church and its leaderships generally fails to acknowledge all that is good in the world. They see the world as a dangerous and scary place. A place we should be "in but not of". Yet, look at all the progress we have made in the world. There are greater opportunities, better health care, less war, less disease and hunger, less poverty, more education and knowledge that at any time in the worlds history. Yet we can't focus on the beautiful view from the top of the mountain. We have to see the potential molehill. Why? Because it keeps the fearful sheep very close to the self-proscribed shepherd. We even use that very terminology at church don't we. The sheep believe that the shepherd cares for them because he loves them. The reality is that he keeps them close so that he can fleece them, and eventually devour them.
As information and knowledge become readily more available, more individual are able to see exactly that.
-Lost