NOM

Red Ryder wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 2:00 pm Has the world ever been shut down before for the flu?

Sort of during the Spanish Flu of 1918 in which 50,000,000 people died.

moksha wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:20 pm https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

4,661 cases in the US. 39 in Utah.

6,362 today in the US and 51 in Utah.

The Shrine of Our Lady of Lourdes, in France, has closed its healing pools as a precaution against the coronavirus.

moksha wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:16 pm

moksha wrote: ↑Mon Mar 16, 2020 10:20 pm https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

4,661 cases in the US. 39 in Utah.

6,362 today in the US and 51 in Utah.

There are some in Utah that never got counted because there were no testing kits. I know because my daughter had the symptoms. Her doctor confirmed that the symptoms were closer to corona virus than any other possibility, and she recently returned from an extended stay in NY state, where there are lots of cases now. So, the fact that common people still can’t get tested unless they are hospitalized is going to throw off the count.

alas wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:56 am So, the fact that common people still can’t get tested unless they are hospitalized is going to throw off the count.

But Trump told us everyone would be tested... Yeah, there are undoubtedly undiagnosed and confirmed cases. Only those people in recovery will have antibodies against it.

moksha wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:29 am The Shrine of Our Lady of Lourdes, in France, has closed its healing pools as a precaution against the coronavirus.

Their faith in miracles is inspiring!

In a related story, Henry B. Eyering has stopped giving blessings because they only compound the death rate.

moksha wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:16 pm https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

6,362 today in the US and 51 in Utah.

9,415 cases in the US and 66 in Utah.

Hagoth wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 10:12 am

moksha wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 12:29 am The Shrine of Our Lady of Lourdes, in France, has closed its healing pools as a precaution against the coronavirus.

Their faith in miracles is inspiring!

In a related story, Henry B. Eyering has stopped giving blessings because they only compound the death rate.

moksha wrote: ↑Wed Mar 18, 2020 11:09 pm

moksha wrote: ↑Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:16 pm https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

6,362 today in the US and 51 in Utah.

9,415 cases in the US and 66 in Utah.

14373 in US
79 Utah

Thoughtful wrote: ↑Fri Mar 20, 2020 7:40 am
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

14373 in the US
79 Utah

19,624 cases in the US. 112 in Utah.

moksha wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:37 am
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

19,624 cases in the US. 112 in Utah.

35,211 confirmed cases in the US and 180 in Utah at the moment of this posting.

I sure am going to miss the break from church when this is over:

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2 ... l-laureate

moksha wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:22 pm

moksha wrote: ↑Sat Mar 21, 2020 5:37 am
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

19,624 cases in the US. 112 in Utah.

35,211 confirmed cases in the US and 180 in Utah at the moment of this posting.

And: The first death in Utah due to COVID-19

The first COVID victim attended the bountiful temple last week. Hence the announced shutdown of it with no reason given:

https://www.deseret.com/faith/2020/3/23 ... lds-church

I guess the invisible nephites that stand guard outside all the temples were not watching like they should.

FiveFingerMnemonic wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:42 pm The first COVID victim attended the bountiful temple last week. Hence the announced shutdown of it with no reason given:

https://www.deseret.com/faith/2020/3/23 ... lds-church

I guess the invisible nephites that stand guard outside all the temples were not watching like they should.

Oh Sh!t.

They closed Oquirrh today. Oquirrh is "my" Polygamy Palace. It was supposedly already closed for maintenance, and this is just an "extension" of that. What are they "accidentally" not telling us about that one? For some strange reason, I don't trust LD$-Inc.

moksha wrote: ↑Sun Mar 22, 2020 10:22 pm
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

35,211 confirmed cases in the US and 180 in Utah at the moment of this posting.

43,901 confirmed cases in the US and 257 in Utah.

FiveFingerMnemonic wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:49 am I sure am going to miss the break from church when this is over:

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2 ... l-laureate

While many epidemiologists are warning of months, or even years, of massive social disruption and millions of deaths, Levitt says the data simply don’t support such a dire scenario — especially in areas where reasonable social distancing measures are in place.

That's encouraging, but I would like to know if social distancing can stop the pandemic or merely hold it at bay. Is there a tipping point where things can reverse, or will a post-peak relaxing of social distancing simply reverse the decline and ramp things back up to full throttle until a vaccine is available?

Whatever happens, they're telling us to buckle up for a really bad week. I keep popping vitamin pills, but it doesn't seem to change what's going on in Italy and New York.

Hagoth wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:18 pm

FiveFingerMnemonic wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:49 am I sure am going to miss the break from church when this is over:

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2 ... l-laureate

While many epidemiologists are warning of months, or even years, of massive social disruption and millions of deaths, Levitt says the data simply don’t support such a dire scenario — especially in areas where reasonable social distancing measures are in place.

That's encouraging, but I would like to know if social distancing can stop the pandemic or merely hold it at bay. Is there a tipping point where things can reverse, or will a post-peak relaxing of social distancing simply reverse the decline and ramp things back up to full throttle until a vaccine is available?

The distancing is "supposed to" slow the spread so that more people don't die due to maxed out hospitals, because bottom line; We can't stop it now. In the meantime we hope science comes up with better treatments while we also wait for science to come up with a vaccine (at least a year out they say.)

While those things transpire... Herd immunity.

wtfluff wrote: ↑Tue Mar 24, 2020 8:54 am

Hagoth wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:18 pm

FiveFingerMnemonic wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 7:49 am I sure am going to miss the break from church when this is over:

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2 ... l-laureate

While many epidemiologists are warning of months, or even years, of massive social disruption and millions of deaths, Levitt says the data simply don’t support such a dire scenario — especially in areas where reasonable social distancing measures are in place.

That's encouraging, but I would like to know if social distancing can stop the pandemic or merely hold it at bay. Is there a tipping point where things can reverse, or will a post-peak relaxing of social distancing simply reverse the decline and ramp things back up to full throttle until a vaccine is available?

The distancing is "supposed to" slow the spread so that more people don't die due to maxed out hospitals, because bottom line; We can't stop it now. In the meantime we hope science comes up with better treatments while we also wait for science to come up with a vaccine (at least a year out they say.)

While those things transpire... Herd immunity.

Going forward, after herd immunity, we'll likely have partial immunity against future strains and/or the virus will become milder in order to survive. (Strains that damage their hosts too much aren't very successful.) It'll be like the Spanish Flu: descendants still around, killing the very weakest of us, with occasional serious outbreaks.

It'll probably outcompete another illness, which I guess is nice.

But before herd immunity, we'll experience it in waves. If we manage to slow it down enough, restrictions will lift to some extent. It's likely it doesn't spread as well during summer, which would also give us a breather. But we won't have herd immunity yet, so it'll start to spread again, probably sometime after summer. It'll spread more slowly and put less strain on the hospitals, but enough to need to restrictions again.

We've probably got a few waves of this to get through, each milder than the last.

A vaccine would speed this up significantly, but not stop it.

moksha wrote: ↑Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:26 pm
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps ... 7b48e9ecf6

43,901 confirmed cases in the US and 257 in Utah.

55,225 confirmed cases in the US and 298 in Utah.