The 2020 numbers

[Cnsl1]

I'm sure you've seen this:
https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.or ... cal-report

Based on these numbers, the average full time missionary baptized less than 2 and a half converts in the year. Each ward or branch grew an average of 4 converts for the year, which sounds pretty good until you look at the children of record additions, which averages to only 2 per ward or branch over the year. So, of the 16+ million members scattered among the 31k or so units, less than 1/2% of those members are having children, or are having those children blessed and counted on ward or branch records. For a church that promotes progeny, less than 1/2 % of its members having kids seems pretty bad.

But not all of those members would be in the child bearing years. Since we don't know the demographic breakdown of those 16+ million members, for the sake of argument, let's assume it's similar to the world population. We are a world wide church, right?

So, the average birth rate in the world is about 18.5 per 1,000 people. If our church population birthed 18.5 for every thousand members, we'd be seeing over 308k births.

But we saw only about 65k children of record last year. It seems like we're short more than 200k kids!

Why? Aging church population? This might explain some of it.

Losing members in droves who aren't blessing their kids in church? That would explain more of it IMO.

Staying with that premise, how many did the church lose?

According to my calculations based on the numbers provided by the church, we gained 125,930 and lost 232,838 , which is a net loss of around 116,900 souls.

I think this is evidence that the church is no longer growing.

I think you left off the children of record baptisms of 65,440. This means by taking the 2019 total and adding the 2020 new converts plus the children and then subtracting the 2020 total membership there were 92,743 who died or had their names removed from the church. Is my math correct?

I thought the children of record 65k were the kids added to a member family through birth/blessing. Children under 8 in a member family are called "members of record" right? I don't see a number for children 8 years old who were baptized during the year, but I would suspect in non pandemic years it would be somewhat more than the number added by birth (because of the average declining birth rate). The pandemic may have thrown off the 2020 numbers. People were probably less likely or less able to baptize and bless their kids in public with the virus around, and to the best of my knowledge, it's easier to bless a baby in your own home than it is to baptize them, so the baptizing of 8 year olds may have dipped lower than the blessing of babies.

[Cnsl1]

I also find it interesting that they have announce, what, 15+ odd temples in the last year, but only managed to complete 1. Okay, temples may take longer to build than a year, but the list of vaporware temples is growing longer and longer each year.

I think this is a perfect example of Russell Nelson trying to glorify his reign as a special prophet. He can announce as many temples as he wants and make it look like the church is thriving and growing under his rule, knowing that some other poor sucker after him has to make good on all of this. If they just keep ploughing ahead like this I can imagine a day when endowment rooms are never more than 5-10% capacity and all of the proxy names are being recycled for the 100th time.

As an aside, a few years ago we discovered that my wife's grandfather was baptized 8 times after he was dead. That was pretty weird, especially considering the fact that he was a baptized faithful member since he was 8 years old and died with his garments on.

My great grandmother was not a member but I baptized my daughter for her in proxy about 15 years ago... then a couple of years ago, we saw that she'd been baptized two more times since we did it.

[Angel]

Things are changing. Church memberships are falling, but non-affiliated spirituality might be rising? What do you think? Is moral purpose and community now better supported through reformation movements - are civil rights protests and volunteer groups establishing themselves as the new spiritual community support groups?

I like the idea that people can find more spirituality and less dogmatism in such movements. As far as Mormons go, I'm not sure whether those things will be the significant factors in reducing attendance in the long run or whether more people will just realize they are happier not going to church than they were before COVID gave them a vacation from sitting in pews.

Apart from lonely older single folks, I heard only enthusiastic acceptance when the meeting block shortened, and then again when COVID forced remote meetings (often wrapped it up in an attitude of pioneer perseverance). ButI think more members than would like to admit it are perfectly happy to have Zoom Church running in the background while they lounge in their garments sipping Postum and watching golf on mute.

Of course, there is the other contingent who dress up in their Sunday best regardless. It's easy to spot the goats among the sheep. They are the ones who leave their video off while Zoom-churching.

Some of the comments that were left on my fb post:

I absolutely think that unaffiliated spirituality is where we're headed. When I think about myself as well as other people I know who do not identify as part of a religion, it's not because we do not value spirituality, connection, community, good works, and service to others. But there is more freedom for compassion when you step away from church teachings that there is only one "right way" or one "truth", and those who don't follow the church perfectly are lesser.

from another ex-mo who posted:

I identify as a humanistic scientific pantheist, as this is what I find feeds my soul and best describes my values.
Humanist because, being a human, I feel a moral obligation to improve life for humankind in general, and individual humans within my sphere of influence.
Scientific because I believe the scientific method is the best tool we have found yet for determining fact from fiction, and while it is a human system and thus fallible, being humans every system we devise will also be fallible and the scientific method is the only system we have that actually takes this fallibility into account to remove, as much as practical, the human error we know is inherent in everything we do.
Pantheist because the universe/cosmos/nature, being the sum total of everything that does exist, has existed, or ever will exist, is by definition the ultimate highest power. If it exists in any form or fashion, then it exists as a subset of the cosmos and thus less powerful than the cosmos. I don't worship nature, because I don't believe it asks nor wants that of us (nor do I grant it any supernatural, anthropomorphic consciousness or motives) but I do feel responsibility to protect it, in part because I myself am a part of it. I came from it, and everything I ever do or become will continue as part of nature. I am entirely dependent upon it for existence, and I find a great deal of awe and beauty within it.
Even in the "ugly" parts of nature I find inspiration; I am reminded of my own mortality when I observe the seasons, the life and death cycle of plants and animals, even the eventual heat death of the universe itself testifies to our connection with it. These reminders of my mortality motivate me to be a better person while I am still alive, because I know my time is limited and I want to make the most of it while I can. I did not exist for many unimaginable eons before I was born. I am here for the briefest window of time, and when I am dead, I will be dead forever. Just a brief but glorious flash of light in an endless dark night. Right now is the time to make the world a better place, to soak up the beauty and wonder of nature, to ask the most meaningful questions I can imagine and learn to love myself and others.
I don't want nor need organized, by-the-numbers religion to be a happy, moral, fulfilled, and balanced person. But more than that, no such institution exists which can satisfy my natural curiosity sufficient for me to believe in it. I don't get the luxury of choosing what I believe; I am bound to believe that which makes the most sense to me. I could only pretend to do otherwise, and I feel that being intellectually dishonest with oneself is a true "sin" if anything ever was. I think each all need to find what works best for each of us, as each of us is different. Even within the strictest organized religion, you will still have vast differences and nuances in beliefs from person to person.
Sorry this got long-winded, I think about these things quite a lot!

and... from another very religious person who who believes organized religious groups = Babylon haha

Rev 18:2- And he cried mightily with a strong voice, saying, Babylon the great is fallen, is fallen, and is become the habitation of devils, and the hold of every foul spirit, and a cage of every unclean and hateful bird. For all nations have drunk of the wine of the wrath of her fornication, and the kings of the earth have committed fornication with her, and the merchants of the earth are waxed rich through the abundance of her delicacies. And I heard another voice from heaven, saying, Come out of her, my people, that ye be not partakers of her sins, and that ye receive not of her plagues.

some see the rise of the "nones" as a 2nd restoration, a renaissance tearing down old corrupt institutions, hopefully building a new form of spirituality that is loving, inclusive, not anti-science, not sexist, not racist etc. etc.

‘O Lord, what Church shall I join?’
... join none of them, for they are all wrong ...

We are living in the age of the "nones"

nn2.PNG (187.87 KiB) Viewed 5376 times

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irreligio ... ted_States

nn3.PNG (20.59 KiB) Viewed 5376 times

My new label is "spiritual but not religious" or "spiritual but not affiliated"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spiritual ... _religious

[Hagoth]

RFM made an interesting observation on the latest Mormonism Live podcast. Many religions report membership in terms of attendance. The LDS church carefully counts attendance but NEVER reports those numbers.

Kinda like how they scrupulously audit their finances a but never divulge the results.

[Hagoth]

...a few years ago we discovered that my wife's grandfather was baptized 8 times after he was dead. That was pretty weird, especially considering the fact that he was a baptized faithful member since he was 8 years old and died with his garments on

That's a new one on me. I wonder how much of this kind of madness is going on?

[2bizE]

I'm sure you've seen this:
https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.or ... cal-report

Based on these numbers, the average full time missionary baptized less than 2 and a half converts in the year. Each ward or branch grew an average of 4 converts for the year, which sounds pretty good until you look at the children of record additions, which averages to only 2 per ward or branch over the year. So, of the 16+ million members scattered among the 31k or so units, less than 1/2% of those members are having children, or are having those children blessed and counted on ward or branch records. For a church that promotes progeny, less than 1/2 % of its members having kids seems pretty bad.

But not all of those members would be in the child bearing years. Since we don't know the demographic breakdown of those 16+ million members, for the sake of argument, let's assume it's similar to the world population. We are a world wide church, right?

So, the average birth rate in the world is about 18.5 per 1,000 people. If our church population birthed 18.5 for every thousand members, we'd be seeing over 308k births.

But we saw only about 65k children of record last year. It seems like we're short more than 200k kids!

Why? Aging church population? This might explain some of it.

Losing members in droves who aren't blessing their kids in church? That would explain more of it IMO.

Staying with that premise, how many did the church lose?

According to my calculations based on the numbers provided by the church, we gained 125,930 and lost 232,838 , which is a net loss of around 116,900 souls.

I think this is evidence that the church is no longer growing.

I think you left off the children of record baptisms of 65,440. This means by taking the 2019 total and adding the 2020 new converts plus the children and then subtracting the 2020 total membership there were 92,743 who died or had their names removed from the church. Is my math correct?

I thought the children of record 65k were the kids added to a member family through birth/blessing. Children under 8 in a member family are called "members of record" right? I don't see a number for children 8 years old who were baptized during the year, but I would suspect in non pandemic years it would be somewhat more than the number added by birth (because of the average declining birth rate). The pandemic may have thrown off the 2020 numbers. People were probably less likely or less able to baptize and bless their kids in public with the virus around, and to the best of my knowledge, it's easier to bless a baby in your own home than it is to baptize them, so the baptizing of 8 year olds may have dipped lower than the blessing of babies.

You are right. I completely messed that one up. I’m claiming soft brain from the pandemic. I forgot that we don’t wait until kids are 8 anymore to count them. We count them at birth now...

[Cnsl1]

Brigham young and countem often

[moksha]

According to my calculations based on the numbers provided by the church, we gained 125,930 and lost 232,838 , which is a net loss of around 116,900 souls.

This might signal a need for new recruiting methods.

[Keewon]

Based on these numbers, the average full time missionary baptized less than 2 and a half converts in the year.

I'd like to see those converts.

Along similar lines, I understand that the average US adult is 5' 7" tall, has 1 3/4 children and is a hermaphrodite...

[Brent]

Parents understand that having a child made a "child of record" makes a lifetime commitment for the child.

I advice my kids to not make them a child of record unless they are comfortable with making a lifetime commitment for them.

[Rob4Hope]

The average age of LDS Membership is advancing steadily higher. Because the church is losing youth and babies are happening less, the "faithful" are those who are older -- and are not having children.

With that type of thing happening, its just a matter of time before there is a serious drop-off of membership numbers.

Going back a little, I remember watching Leah Remeni's show on Scientology. One thing the Scientologists do is invest in a lot of real-estate. They have a lot of beautiful buildings, but they are largely empty. They do it to provide a façade of growth and prosperity; but its a lie.

Seems to me the LDS church is starting (or continuing) that pathway. Empty temples, but we still stack them up don't we. Empty church buildings, but they keep getting built.

Most of LDS tithing income comes from the Mormon Corridor. But that is where some of the highest resignation numbers are coming from as well.

Better hold those dollars brethren and stop building for a season. Have to have cold hard cash in hand....for a rainy day (like the church failing)...

[2bizE]

One thing of importance to note is how the children are counted today. Prior to 1989, the church didn’t count members until they were baptized. Then, in an effort to increase membership numbers, the method was changed to include children born to member families.
I wonder what tweak the church will make next to bolster membership numbers?
Perhaps it will start assigning a statistical projection of potential children a couple may have at the time the couple is married??

https://www.fullerconsideration.com/membership.php

[Red Ryder]

I wonder what tweak the church will make next to bolster membership numbers?

I think they will make some adjustments down and blame COVID. Why of course our Baptisms are down! Of course of course of course! Our missionaries were under lockdown and our program displaced.

Never let a good opportunity for obfuscation go to waste.

[2bizE]

I wonder what tweak the church will make next to bolster membership numbers?

I think they will make some adjustments down and blame COVID. Why of course our Baptisms are down! Of course of course of course! Our missionaries were under lockdown and our program displaced.

Never let a good opportunity for obfuscation go to waste.

You are quite correct RR. I was looking downstream a little further after Covid is no longer a valid excuse...

[Cnsl1]

I have also heard that the lockdown had led to more lessons taught by missionaries and more contacts.

While that MIGHT be true, it certainly didn't seem to result in more baptisms.

But it's about spin. How can we come out of this smelling better? I'm all for accentuating the positives and looking on the bright side but there comes a point you just can't ignore the data (though I suspect the guys at the top will continue to focus on the parts that confirm biases so that the majority of the mass will ignore the data).

Anything that doesn't support testimony and faith is evil.

[2bizE]

I have also heard that the lockdown had led to more lessons taught by missionaries and more contacts.

While that MIGHT be true, it certainly didn't seem to result in more baptisms.

But it's about spin. How can we come out of this smelling better? I'm all for accentuating the positives and looking on the bright side but there comes a point you just can't ignore the data (though I suspect the guys at the top will continue to focus on the parts that confirm biases so that the majority of the mass will ignore the data).

Anything that doesn't support testimony and faith is evil.

They are probably counting people they ambush on Facebook as lessons taught.