Are youth really leaving?

[1smartdodog]

I hear this a lot that the youth say under 30 are leaving the church in droves. Seeing as how I have little contact with such individuals other than my kids and they have passed the 30 mark. I wonder what real world experience is.

Do you see a tidal wave of kids leaving or becoming disinterested more than usual.?


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[Evil_Bert]

This is just from my observation of my kids and their peers.

My oldest daughter is 20. Of the kids she was in YW/YM (my daughter quit at 16), about 50 - 60% are inactive. Our ward isn't loaded with youth so we are talking 4-5 kids leaving.

Same with my son's peer group, but the percentage may be as high as 65%.

These are mostly good active families, but the activity rates for their kids are 50% or less.

[Red Ryder]

Yes and no.

Two friends of my daughter just returned from their stateside missions early after only 4 months out including MTC time. Both have come home due to anxiety and depression.

A few of her other friends didn’t go at all.

They still attend for social reasons but drink iced coffees, aren’t interested in garments, and think church leadership is too old and run by men.

It’s only a matter of time before they phase completely out unless significant changes can be made to make the church more Christ like and inclusive.

The inoculation has worked for others as our ward has had numerous missionaries go and finish. But they all come home with a robotic weirdness that the youth today see as strange. Many come home and are honest in their homecoming talks about how difficult, boring, and long their mission was.

The youth will drive the changes to “Make Church Great Again!”

[wtfluff]

The youth will drive the changes to “Make Church Great Again!”

Wait... When was church actually "Great?"

Back when us old folks walked to school both ways uphill in two feet of snow?

[FiveFingerMnemonic]

I can tell you that in my wife's family, there is no sign whatsoever of rebellious youth. They are like the Army of Helaman. My own young kids show a tendency towards religious scrupulosity as well. Time will tell.

[Linked]

My YSA aged nieces and nephews are mixed. 1 is on a mission, 2 have tattoos, and 1 talks about going on a mission but shows other signs that point to not going. It's hard to tell with the youth aged kids if they are committed or biding their time until they are old enough to stop going to church without their parents hounding them.

A side-note on one of the tattooed ones, she still has a super close relationship with both parents and they never talk bad about her. Her dad (my brother), is in the bishopric and is a fully-committed TBM. Her mom is also a fully-committed TBM from what I know. It's great to see a family stay close even when the kids don't stay on "the path".

[RubinHighlander]

Besides nearly all of my kids being out before DW and I were, I don't really have a view into my local unit anymore to know what our trends are. It seemed like 30-40% of the missionaries were coming home early for mostly mental reasons. Seems like resignations overall had a spike on QuitMormon.org toward the end of the year but have now dropped off.

There may still be a steady stream of folks dropping out, but I would guess the spikes of tares are starting to level off, leaving mostly wheat TBMs. Growth will probably remain pretty flat, drop in new conversions but babies still popping out at a steady pace. If the COB can avoid talking about the controversial issues, maybe they will avoid further spikes in exits. With the revealed true history readily available for some time now, I think most of us have found our way out and now the appologetics are keeping most of the remaining TBM heads buried in the sand? If there is a steady state approaching for TSCC, that could quickly change if RMN heads to the pearly gates and DHO comes to the throne and implements all of his agenda. Or, maybe DHO already has implemented his agenda because really his hand is up in the RMN puppet.

[moksha]

The drop-off for Generation-Z is yet to be determined. It's remarkable that the Silent Generation of Members of Even the Church of Jesus Christ was able to retain 75% of its membership, the majority of whom are still on the record till they turn 110.

[Snowdrop]

I am 30. In my class growing up there were 12 of us. Out of the twelve, three (maybe four, but I doubt it) including myself are active. Three have been very vocal about why they’ve left, others just faded.

[dogbite]

In my boomer year of 7 of us males in SLC, only two went on missions, only 1 remains active. I did a mission, I'm not active. Of the females, 6, no missions, two I know are active, 3 I know are not. The other is unknown.

[Thoughtful]

There's a new postmo group on FB that's loaded with young adults, 20-35ish. Growing like crazy.

Of my siblings, half of us are out.

[Mormorrisey]

I agree with RR, yes and no. At least in my little area on the periphery. I'm sure it's a lot different here than in the Morridor.

Numbers wise, it's not great. The usual stake indicators of kids going missions, prospective elders getting the priesthood and the attendance at our YSA ward is abysmal. Over a decade ago in our area when I last saw the statistics, the prospective elder/priesthood ratio was hovering around 7-8%, which was bad in and of itself and that's why the YSA unit was created, to try and stem the bleeding with the millennials. Let's just say it's even worse now even WITH the YSA unit.

However, anecdotally, the kids who are in, are really IN. They love family history, are ward family history consultants, will go on missions (about equal between men and women) and will try and get married when they get back. The YSA ward, while rather small, is a rather strong (though rather clique-y, as my kids tell me). They have full buy-in. But I would say that this number is fairly small, and our stake is shrinking significantly with the majority of members being a large contingent of boomers, a smaller contingent of Generation Xers like me, and an even smaller group of millennials and Generation Z's. Primaries across the stake are extremely small, except for one unit. These numbers are not at all unusual for the North America Northeast area, and there's been a HUGE push from the Area Presidency to stop the numbers bleeding. Anyone who lives in this area was told to have a 5th Sunday meeting on the North America Northeast area plan, and it's pretty aggressive. So this is not a secret. But it's also not working, except for those with extreme buy in.

Hence my worry over my SP friend's burnout. The pressure is really cooking.

[Arcturus]

I'm in my mid-30s. My DW and I didn't announce our exit from the church publicly at all - just family, a few friends, and of course those few in our ward (we're outside of UT) that knew us before we left.

Your question is hard to answer because stepping away from Mormonism is either close to apostasy or outright apostasy to most TBMs. I think most people quietly leave the church for this reason. I have a handful of friends back in UT who have left the church, to my serious surprise. They were hard core TBMs, uber faithful. The type that proudly and excitedly wore their sunday best to school on those seminary devotional days. More and more, we see other friends on the FaceBook (scattered across the USA) who appear to be stepping away from activity, evidenced by the women wearing short shorts and tanktops

A guy from my mission who is still well connected with everyone has told me that at least 30% of our group are no longer going to church. And he's a straight shooter who is careful not to exaggerate.

So I kinda believe those Jana Riess stats might be pretty close point estimates of what's really happening. I think the church's recent changes are also evidence that they're trying to make the members happy.

Edit: Added more info

[wtfluff]

I'm not in on the gossip in the local "ward" so I can't say what the ward youth are doing. I do know that around 40% of the kids the age of my oldest did not go on missions. Shockingly, I also witnessed at more than one (Gen-X parents) family in my little cul-de-sac completely leave, and due to move-in's/move-out's I've watched the neighborhood go from likely 80-90% mormon to 20-30% mormon in the heart of the MorCor. That last anecdote is quite shocking to my fluffy brain.

In my own (Gen-X parents) family, 60% are out, though since I live in the MorCor, I could "lose" my younger Gen-Z children back to belief due to MORmON peer pressure.

As far as my family of origin, we're a mix of Boomers and Gen-X (if you go by the exact birth dates) and a total of 40% of us are out. 20% Boomer, and 20% Gen-X. Of my parent's 20 grandchildren, 25% are out. 2 of the lucky buggers are never-mo's, and one other shows all of the signs of being out, but does not broadcast it, but I"m going to make a wild guess and say they are out. Great-grandchildren? 80% never-mo, 20% "in". (That youngest "20%" is only a few months old...)

My in-laws are I guess Jack-Mo's. They very rarely attend, but still believe on a basic level. 25% of their Gen-X children are out, and 33% of the grand-children are out.


So... There are a lot of convoluted numbers in that rant that likely don't mean much of anything. My Fluffy Apostate Confirmation Bias says that more of the "younger generation" in my family are not MORmON.

[RubinHighlander]

I've watched the neighborhood go from likely 80-90% mormon to 20-30% mormon in the heart of the MorCor. That last anecdote is quite shocking to my fluffy brain.

I hadn't thought about the neighborhood dynamics. During the last housing bust we scored a short sale up on the east bench in south east Weber County. Most of the folks that can afford to live up here are probably bringing in $500k (not me!) or more annually. As I look at what I know from living up here for many years and the 4 different wards I lived in, I would guess that members vs. former/nons are less than 50%. I'm not sure if it's changed much over the years because these are stable upper income families with a lot of TBM bishop and SP types, former and current. The HP groups were always 4-5 times the size of Elders, more teens, smaller primaries. A lot of that has to do with housing affordability.

[Random]

My kids are 27, 25, and 23. Two stopped going in their teens. One kept going off and on until in her twenties. The youngest two stopped identifiying as mormon as teenagers. The middle one resigned almost 2 years ago because she felt harassed. The oldest resigned about a year before that, after much thought. The youngest is out, but not resigned as far as I know.

My sister in law has several children under 30. None of her children are active lds as far as I know.

I hear this a lot that the youth say under 30 are leaving the church in droves. Seeing as how I have little contact with such individuals other than my kids and they have passed the 30 mark. I wonder what real world experience is.

Do you see a tidal wave of kids leaving or becoming disinterested more than usual.?


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[JustHangingOn@57]

For context, I attend church every week (because of DW) and have a calling, but as I have said in prior posts I am 100% out mentally and don't pay tithing. My temple recommend expired recently and I have no interest in renewing it. (DW realized the implications of being temple recommend-less, and promptly went ahead and did a last buy of g's for me that should could keep me in magic underwear for at least the next 100 years )

I live in an upper middle income area of Alpine Ut, with several wards in our stake being very affluent. My observation is that I don't see many people leaving the church. In fact, we've had at least 6 new families move into our ward recently, each one more TBM than the last. I see evidence that some of the youth are leaving, but they are doing the slow fade and without much fanfare. I wholeheartedly agree with a prior poster who observed that the youth who do decide to stay on the path (mission, BYU, marriage) are most definitely all in, hardcore, full on TBM.

[Spicy McHaggis]

When I was just off my mission in Bountiful every stake had its own young adult ward. Now that my kids are that age most of Farmington and Centerville make up just one young adult ward. That’s a huge area to form just one ward.

The good news is that my kids are not active.

[Coop]

This video gives some insight and as it was filmed during a presentation to the Apostles and others I assume it is accurate. According to the authors of the study the activity rate of those single adults under age 30 is only 30%. Data is at the 6:27 mark.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FBH045ooaY0

For the best data outside of the Church then I highly recommend this study by Dr. Jana Riess and Dr. Benjamin Knoll.
https://thenextmormons.org/survey-results/

All the best,
Bob

[2bizE]

The drop-off for Generation-Z is yet to be determined. It's remarkable that the Silent Generation of Members of Even the Church of Jesus Christ was able to retain 75% of its membership, the majority of whom are still on the record till they turn 110.

How do you define leaving? How does the church define leaving? This graph shows retention rates? How does the church define retention? I doubt that 54 percent of gen z has removed their names from the church and quit. So, it must be that they haven’t shown up at church for a while, but where is that even recorded anymore? How does the church understand the retention rate of young people? I realize that the stats we have probably come from the Next Mormons survey. What I am guessing is that institute attendance is down. They probably know how many sign up for institute the first year and how many stop.
I do think we are losing gen z at higher numbers. I also believe that the next generation after Z will attend even less. I think the church will continue to push tithing. The silent generation and baby boomers are no longer paying tithing. Gen x is losing people, and I think as the parents of Gen x die off, more Gen xers will stop attending or leave the church. Millennials are already leaving in droves.