Hindsight Bias and Outcome Bias gone Nuclear

[RubinHighlander]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1xQeXOz0Ncs

I was interested in this video because I'm gearing up to watch the TV series on Chernobyl on HBO. I've always been interested in nuclear power plants. I remember very distinctly the 3 mile island accident in the 70's with Jimmy Carter visiting the plant. If you don't want to sit through all the explanations of the basic of how the power plant works you can skip the the part about hindsight bias, but I think the lead up is important.

So what does this have to do with TSCC or faith crisis, etc.? I think it's been easy for me, as someone who escaped it, to have too much bias toward TBMs. But I can never have enough bias toward TSCC! So maybe TBMs are seeing temperatures above 200F in the pilot relief valve, it's only because they were conditioned to think that's okay and TSCC wired up the light to always be green, no matter what the state of the valve is. Also TSCC always keep several warning lights blinking and sound loud alarms, even during normal operating conditions.

[FiveFingerMnemonic]

At the end of Chernobyl there is a great quote about the truth not caring about your ideologies and religions.

[Linked]

I like this metaphor, and I love the title of this thread.

It's interesting that they keep the emergency horns blaring and warning lights blinking all time, but believers struggle to see through it. Typically if a piece of equipment you use has the warning lights blinking when nothing is wrong you quickly learn to ignore the warning lights. But the end of days rhetoric is still pretty strong in the church. I guess the key is to make sure the problem that turns on the warning lights cannot be verified (the rewards and punishments are after death or it was God's will and we need faith not to be healed or tithing opens the windows of heaven for blessings except when it doesn't and those blessings were just spiritual anyway except for the people who actually get rich.

[Rob4Hope]

I remember during my mission (mid 1980s) how much emergency rhetoric talk abounded. We were going out to prune the world for the last time! We were crying repentance to a people who were facing imminent destruction! We were trying to persuade people to avoid the abomination of desolation!

GAWD, what a load of crock.

Anyway, isn't there some type of psychological syndrome or something associated with always being in defcom 5 or something? I know that it down-regulates your feelings about what constitutes a warning or emergency, but doesn't it also provoke potential psychological problems?

[trophywife26.2]

Chernobyl, the mini series was amazing. I just wrote down these quotes from it.

"When the truth offends we lie and lie until we can no longer remember it is even there but it is still there. Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later that debt is paid."

"To be a scientist is to be naive. We are so focused on our search for truth. We fail to consider how few actually want us to find it, but it is always there whether we see it or not. Whether we choose to or not. The truth doesn’t care about our needs or wants. It doesn’t care about our governments, ideologies, our religions. It will lie in wait for all time. And this at last is the gift of Chernobyl. Where I once would fear the cost of truth now I only ask what is the cost of lies?"

[moksha]

Elder Chekov - Bishop Kirk, the Truth Containment Fields are about to blow!

Bishop Kirk - Steady as she goes, Elder Chekov.