Church Growth: Boy, were they wrong

[Hagoth]

I was going to post this in oliver_denom's thread about declines in the Southern Baptist church, but decided to spin it off as its own topic rather than continue my thread jack.

US News & World Report, Nov. 13, 2000 reported: "If current trends hold, experts say Latter-day Saints could number 265 million worldwide by 2080, second only to Roman Catholics among Christian bodies. Mormonism, says Rodney Stark, professor of sociology and religion at the University of Washington, "stands on the threshold of becoming the first major faith to appear on Earth since the prophet Mohammed rode out of the desert."

And here's some guy's mathematical proof for it: http://www.lds-mormon.com/churchgrowthrates.shtml

And, finally, the reality check from the 21st century; the Pew Research Center's finding that the LDS church has been in decline (in America)
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/amer ... landscape/

Worldwide the church is still growing but at only about 1.5%, the lowest rate since 1937. Quite and upset. Meanwhile, church growth apologists (who knew there was such a thing) are claiming that this is a good thing, because the church is focusing on "centers of strength." Matt Martinich, founder of the LDS Church Growth blog says, "The church in Mozambique has achieved good results improving convert retention and member activity rates." https://religionnews.com/2016/04/19/mor ... reat-news/

His blog is here: https://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com/20 ... e-new.html

Maybe our new plan will be to forget about Missouri and call Utah priesthood holders to build wooden submarines and sail to Africa to defend the New New Jerusalem against Islam.

[2bizE]

I was going to post this in oliver_denom's thread about declines in the Southern Baptist church, but decided to spin it off as its own topic rather than continue my thread jack.

US News & World Report, Nov. 13, 2000 reported: "If current trends hold, experts say Latter-day Saints could number 265 million worldwide by 2080, second only to Roman Catholics among Christian bodies. Mormonism, says Rodney Stark, professor of sociology and religion at the University of Washington, "stands on the threshold of becoming the first major faith to appear on Earth since the prophet Mohammed rode out of the desert."

And here's some guy's mathematical proof for it: http://www.lds-mormon.com/churchgrowthrates.shtml

And, finally, the reality check from the 21st century; the Pew Research Center's finding that the LDS church has been in decline (in America)
http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/amer ... landscape/

Worldwide the church is still growing but at only about 1.5%, the lowest rate since 1937. Quite and upset. Meanwhile, church growth apologists (who knew there was such a thing) are claiming that this is a good thing, because the church is focusing on "centers of strength." Matt Martinich, founder of the LDS Church Growth blog says, "The church in Mozambique has achieved good results improving convert retention and member activity rates." https://religionnews.com/2016/04/19/mor ... reat-news/

His blog is here: https://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com/20 ... e-new.html

Maybe our new plan will be to forget about Missouri and call Utah priesthood holders to build wooden submarines and sail to Africa to defend the New New Jerusalem against Islam.

The Pew Research page gives me page not found.

Yes, the church is following the same trend of decreasing convert and retention rates.
I guess the question to ask is why?
Probably related to the internet and social media.
A few thoughts:
1) When i was a kid, church was a place to talk with friends. No cell phones, no internet. You had to do it face to face.
2) Getting a drivers license was a big deal because then you could go to where your friends were.
3) Masons, shriners, and other similar non-religious organizations are experiencing similar declines. People can get some of the networking and friendships online like with facebook or linked in.
4) I think some people have grown tired of the busy lifestyles and just want to cut out time-sucking activities.

[Corsair]

My favorite part of general conference has been the statistical report in April. I have been following the charting the church for some time. It was suspiciously expected that the church did not read the report during the meeting. You can go look at it on your own and not have to take up precious broadcast time going over numbers with a slight increase over last year. Am I too cynical thinking that this is step one in phasing out the public release of this information? There are some embarrassing parts of the report, but they only show up once you start graphing them and looking at trends.

[foolmeonce]

My favorite part of general conference has been the statistical report in April. I have been following the charting the church for some time. It was suspiciously expected that the church did not read the report during the meeting. You can go look at it on your own and not have to take up precious broadcast time going over numbers with a slight increase over last year. Am I too cynical thinking that this is step one in phasing out the public release of this information? There are some embarrassing parts of the report, but they only show up once you start graphing them and looking at trends.

I'll bet that the thorough analysis that's been done with those numbers on this board (or maybe it was 1.0?) and reddit are the reason they chickened out of reading the numbers in the last GC.

[blazerb]

My favorite part of general conference has been the statistical report in April. I have been following the charting the church for some time. It was suspiciously expected that the church did not read the report during the meeting. You can go look at it on your own and not have to take up precious broadcast time going over numbers with a slight increase over last year. Am I too cynical thinking that this is step one in phasing out the public release of this information? There are some embarrassing parts of the report, but they only show up once you start graphing them and looking at trends.

Me too. The statistical report is fascinating. I think the church will suppress any information that it does not believe will enhance the story it tells about itself. I don't think you are too cynical.

[GoodBoy]

My favorite part of general conference has been the statistical report in April. I have been following the charting the church for some time. It was suspiciously expected that the church did not read the report during the meeting. You can go look at it on your own and not have to take up precious broadcast time going over numbers with a slight increase over last year. Am I too cynical thinking that this is step one in phasing out the public release of this information? There are some embarrassing parts of the report, but they only show up once you start graphing them and looking at trends.

Me too. The statistical report is fascinating. I think the church will suppress any information that it does not believe will enhance the story it tells about itself. I don't think you are too cynical.

Me three. The church has a very long history of just not talking about things that are not faith promoting.

[Corsair]

While living in Georgia I had a bishop, who was actually quite a good guy, stand up in SM with his wife who was the RS pres and announce that they were done with church. They stated that they believed it to be true but that all the time they had to commit to it was ruining their family and their marriage. He walked off the stand and walked out with his family.

That would have been amazing to watch. That's more drama than any emotionally manipulative church could ever summon.

[A New Name]

While living in Georgia I had a bishop, who was actually quite a good guy, stand up in SM with his wife who was the RS pres and announce that they were done with church. They stated that they believed it to be true but that all the time they had to commit to it was ruining their family and their marriage. He walked off the stand and walked out with his family.

How long ago was this? recent history?

[moksha]

Maybe our new plan will be to forget about Missouri and call Utah priesthood holders to build wooden submarines and sail to Africa to defend the New New Jerusalem against Islam.

Sounds as reasonable as building pioneer handcarts out of balsa wood so they would be easier to pull.

[Corsair]

Maybe our new plan will be to forget about Missouri and call Utah priesthood holders to build wooden submarines and sail to Africa to defend the New New Jerusalem against Islam.

I was at the LDS visitors center in Independence Missouri two weeks ago. The idea of a "gathering place" for Zion was openly stated many times during the tour through their very professional center. I did not try to pin them down on whether or not the Missouri gathering was successful in any meaningful way. Nor did I try to ask about a timeline for a future gathering in Missouri. The institutional church has too many congregations and real estate holdings in places outside of the midwest. I figure the official time for a future gathering in Missouri would be several months after Hell freezes over.

As a child and teen, I heard a number of devout teachers and leaders bring up the whole "return to Missouri" and how we would probably be walking because obviously civil order would have collapsed after the desolation caused by gay marriage, R-rated movies, and coffee drinking. Even as a believing teenager I clearly saw that the Mesa temple alone was built to survive anything short of an asteroid strike. I stopped worrying about this nebulous "Missouri" plan because it sounded kind of dumb with the obvious growth in Utah, Arizona, and Idaho alone. After all, the church now owns 2% of Florida, an idea that almost writes it's own punchlines. This interest in Missouri is only to keep up a presence because the CoC and the Temple Lot group are there.

[Archimedes]

This interest in Missouri is only to keep up a presence because the CoC and the Temple Lot group are there.

Well, that and the fact of the many prophecies made by Joseph Smith about events that have taken place, and supposedly will take place in Missouri and environs. It would be difficult to write those out of LDS history, although I would wager some current church leaders would like to.

Missouri is dumb anyway. Why not gather in someplace cool, like... Canada?

[Hagoth]

As a child and teen, I heard a number of devout teachers and leaders bring up the whole "return to Missouri" and how we would probably be walking because obviously civil order would have collapsed after the desolation caused by gay marriage, R-rated movies, and coffee drinking.

I guess "returning to Missouri" has been redefined, just like the literal gathering of Israel to one place now refers to the virtual and entirely non-literal gathering of Israel to nowhere in particular. "Missouri" must be a symbolic word for "real estate," and "returning to Missouri" means "providing money to purchase for real estate." Somehow it seems less adventurous and noble.

A bit off topic: my mom was the stake Girl's Camp director. She claimed that the program existed because The Prophet (I forget which one) had a vision of all of the women and girls walking back to Missouri to join the men who had already gone there to defend the temple. Bottom line, the girls need solid survival skills. My mom's program was not a froofy feel-good indoctrination machine, she ran an intense and efficient survival training program that put what I was learning in Boys Scouts to shame.

[Corsair]

A bit off topic: my mom was the stake Girl's Camp director. She claimed that the program existed because The Prophet (I forget which one) had a vision of all of the women and girls walking back to Missouri to join the men who had already gone there to defend the temple. Bottom line, the girls need solid survival skills. My mom's program was not a froofy feel-good indoctrination machine, she ran an intense and efficient survival training program that put what I was learning in Boys Scouts to shame.

My dear wife remains devout, but the usual agenda of LDS Girls Camp definitely annoys her. She has fond memories of attending her Stake Girls Camp which involved a lot of camping skills in addition to the devotional aspects. She was not impressed with any Girls Camp that includes cabins or food not cooked by the young women.

Connecting this back to Missouri certainly sounds like the kind of idea that would arise out of frontier Mormonism. It's like they were expecting the Second Coming to happen long before these demographic trends might end up being a problem.

[RubinHighlander]

Does anyone know if the COB has recent land grabs in that area or have they gone as far as they can? If the COB is still buying parcels in that area, it might be a sign of the times they still intend to self-fulfill some of that prophesy as part of their effort to keep the narrative alive. If they haven't bought anything for a long time, that prophecy might just be on the phase out list.

[Not Buying It]

The Church has a good spin no matter which way growth goes. When growth is up the Church is the rock cut out of the mountain that will fill the whole world. When growth is down its the last days and even the elect are being deceived, and for the faithful “their numbers were few”. Either way, they have the spin ready to make the remaining members think either growth or decline was prophesied.

[Corsair]

The Church has a good spin no matter which way growth goes. When growth is up the Church is the rock cut out of the mountain that will fill the whole world. When growth is down its the last days and even the elect are being deceived, and for the faithful “their numbers were few”. Either way, they have the spin ready to make the remaining members think either growth or decline was prophesied.

This is how I see it:



The LDS church is becoming the religious version of Dilbert's terrible company. I eagerly anticipate being in a ward with the "Pointy Haired Bishop".

[shadow]

This interest in Missouri is only to keep up a presence because the CoC and the Temple Lot group are there.

Well, that and the fact of the many prophecies made by Joseph Smith about events that have taken place, and supposedly will take place in Missouri and environs. It would be difficult to write those out of LDS history, although I would wager some current church leaders would like to.

Missouri is dumb anyway. Why not gather in someplace cool, like... Canada?

Missouri's not so bad. Besides, some of those scriptures got my wife comfortable when I wanted out of the MorCor to go to school in Missouri.

We live in the pacific northwest now, and there is no way I'd trade summers here for marching in the muggy, summer heat of Missouri, even if I believed and the prophet said so.

[2bizE]

While living in Georgia I had a bishop, who was actually quite a good guy, stand up in SM with his wife who was the RS pres and announce that they were done with church. They stated that they believed it to be true but that all the time they had to commit to it was ruining their family and their marriage. He walked off the stand and walked out with his family.

That would have been amazing to watch. That's more drama than any emotionally manipulative church could ever summon.

I would have loved to see this. Would love more for my wife to have seen it.