What portion stays? What portion goes?

[ap1054]

Hey everyone! I apologize if this question has been asked before. Also apologize if its misplaced on NOM. It's doctrine related so I thought I'd post it here.

In your experience, what percent of members who dive into the rabbit hole of church issues end up staying TBMs? What percent stay in the church but "switch off" and no longer believe, but rather hang on because of the social ramifications of leaving? And what percent choose to leave?

Personally, I don't know the answers to these questions because I don't know of many members who fall into this group, due to the taboo nature of discussing these issues with TBMs. It's unfortunate that the culture is such that you can't talk about doubt and more specifically, the dark side of church history and church culture. I just chatted with an old friend who served in the same mission and I was shocked to hear that he's left the church. He then informed me that a nontrivial number of missionaries from our mission have since left the church (this year is my 10 year mark since coming home). Furthermore, after my experience I find it hard for anyone to maintain a strong conviction of all that the church purports to be true after being informed of all the problems. Sure there are folks like the Givens, Mason, Bushman, Prince, etc. (Quinn doesn't fall in this group and he's a mystery to me). But these people have it harder likely more than anyone aside from the GA's themselves with the pressure to suck it up and stay. Look at the social capital they have in the church, and the reputation that would likely take a hit (I could be wrong on this assumption) if they chose to leave. Imagine Bushman walking away from the church after all he's said, supported, and written about... Personally, if Bushman left I would want to know what was the final straw that pushed him out and for how long (1 year, 5 years, 10 years, 20 years?) while he stayed in the church did he suffer trying to be intellectually honest.

This is something I'm struggling with right now since my dad is telling me he's looked into everything and he still is able to maintain a TBM stance. And he always tries to beat me up about it - "Have more faith! Stop looking at the negative!!" I'm sure you all have had similar experiences. But maybe I'm wrong...

[Brent]

First, I have no facts or stats.
Second, the slowing growth, to my mind, is indicative of the slow fade out. Meaning that millennials are simply dropping out and their children aren't in the mix.

[ap1054]

Let me phrase my question better. If you had to guess, what portion of those who dive into the rabbit hole come out unscathed (i.e., a TBM)? How many stay but are no longer TBM, and how many leave?

Right now I'm in the debate of whether to tolerate the church and to pull whatever good I can out of the church, all while shielding my daughters (3 little girls, no sons) from stuff that I think is bogus and unhealthy, but admitting that there is a small amount of good to capture (at least that's what I think now, that could change). Or to leave entirely and go... somewhere else, possibly to no institutional church? But curious to see what everyone thinks most people do once they've swallowed the red pill.

[Linked]

Unfortunately I don't think this question has a clean answer. The question itself is too fuzzy. I assume the rabbit hole you speak of is the CES letter type stuff; church history, doctrinal shifts, etc. But there is so much more that the church has going against it. The rabbit hole includes the treatment of LGBTQ+ individuals, how they handle rape/sexual assault, treatment of women in general, pushy salesman tactics, all the marketing, etc. It also includes the lack of evidence for it's claims, for most things the church claims to have unique answers to the answers are either clearly wrong, logically inconsistent, or stupid obvious.

TBMs are living in the rabbit hole, it's all around them. They have built defenses against all the things in the rabbit hole. TBMs avoid bad feelings, like those caused by the cognitive dissonance one must go through to break free. The have pithy responses to kill testimony endangering thoughts, responses like, "we'll know that in the afterlife" or "The prophet may be wrong but I'll be rewarded for following his counsel" or many many others.

For those TBMs who lower their defenses to see and internalize the rabbit hole around them I don't think any can stay fully TBM. As for percentages who become progressive or NOM or leave, I really couldn't say. These numbers would be difficult to get.

[Palerider]

I think others have answered as well as possible the numbers question.

But regarding your dad, I got the exact same response from my SP when I expressed grave concerns regarding the veracity of the churches truth claims. He said he'd "read it all and it never bothered him."

That's when I had to look at him and say to myself, "What the heck is wrong with you that you can't see the problems here?"

It's extremely difficult for a TBM to stand outside their own paradigm and see their own prejudices. And I'm not sure how that happens from the outside. It seems to be something that has to come from within the individual when they finally decide, "I'm going to take a completely objective look at this stuff and see if the answers that the church minions are providing actually have validity".
But many are so highly invested they just can't get there. It's very much a cult-like grasp that has engulfed them. Many of us know because we were there once.

A person has to get tired of trying to pound square pegs into round holes.

I once read where Tal Bachman said one of the most impactful questions he could ask a TBM was, "If you had to find out the church wasn't true, when would you rather do it, now or much later?"

[mooseman]

Its been my experience when a tbm says they've been down the rabbit hole and are ok....they really havent been.
My dad, for example, swears he knows "everything" about Adam God. Turns out, he stopped at BRMs denials BY taught it, and believes its just things being taken out od context by antis. Or the bishop who insist it was "normal" for 14 year olds to marry on the frontier. They've hit the first level of appoligetics, are oknwith it, and assume theyve reached the bottom.
I know thats what i did for a long time. The BOA doesnt need to be a literal translation, the scroll was an instrument to inspire. Evolution is totally compatible with lds belief.....for my mission and my 20s i seriously thought i "knew" the issues and was ok.
Then I looked closer at the appolgetics. About why NA populations were destroyed. About what joseph said about the scrolls. The antibank in kirtland and how preisthood changed.
When i looked closer, i went down the hole for real. Iblost the ability to have faith my leaders knew something i didnt, that they were somehow more divinely inspired than I, and i could no longer blindely follow.
But i stayed. Or tried to. My voice was no longer welcome because it didnt agree gays where a modern plaque sent to destroy families, and iblost friends because i dare say gays ok. I had to bite my tounge in class as people said our doctrine never changed, and people praised the GA as demigods who do no wrong.....
Once you actually go down the rabbit hole, the question isnt can you stay? Its how long can you stay?

[moksha]

Long time message board poster Cinepro has estimated that there are currently 16,118,169 versions of the Mormon gospel. There would be more, but some have quit.

[RubinHighlander]

Its been my experience when a tbm says they've been down the rabbit hole and are ok....they really havent been.

+1

When I sent my resignnation email to bish and SP, my SP claimed that he had read the controversial historical problems and came to different conclusions than I did. We didn't get into specifics, but I'm guessing he may have read some of the essays, probably some FAIR stuff, which just helps you develope more mental gymnastics. Also, for a new SP, I think he was more invested and motivated to stay in.

From my observation and personal experiences with friends, family and aquaintenances, I'd venture a guess using the 80/20 rule; 80% leave it and 20% manage to stay involved in various ways. Anyone with a fairly open and critical thinking mind will definitely find a path out. Some of those will mentally free themselves, but stay involved becasue they are dedicated to their families and will do it to keep their marriage together (where there is an entrenched TBM spouse).

[wtfluff]

If you've ever had a "calling" where you deal with attendance numbers, you know this simple fact: Activity rates are dismal.

What does that mean? The majority of people who are baptized into LDS-Inc. leave. Whether they "go down the rabbit hole" or not, the majority leave.

[deacon blues]

I think others have answered as well as possible the numbers question.

But regarding your dad, I got the exact same response from my SP when I expressed grave concerns regarding the veracity of the churches truth claims. He said he'd "read it all and it never bothered him."

That's when I had to look at him and say to myself, "What the heck is wrong with you that you can't see the problems here?"

It's extremely difficult for a TBM to stand outside their own paradigm and see their own prejudices. And I'm not sure how that happens from the outside. It seems to be something that has to come from within the individual when they finally decide, "I'm going to take a completely objective look at this stuff and see if the answers that the church minions are providing actually have validity".
But many are so highly invested they just can't get there. It's very much a cult-like grasp that has engulfed them. Many of us know because we were there once.

A person has to get tired of trying to pound square pegs into round holes.

I once read where Tal Bachman said one of the most impactful questions he could ask a TBM was, "If you had to find out the church wasn't true, when would you rather do it, now or much later?"

The Bachman quote is excellent, thanks, Pale. I hope I have the wisdom and guts to use it at appropriate times. Or apply it to individual issues, like: "If you had to find out: ________ " fill in the blank: priesthood ban, polygamy, concept of God, etc.______ "wasn't true, would you rather find out now or later."

Or more specifically: If I had to have the Church tell me the priesthood ban was a BS social construct, would I rather hear it in 1970 (before my mission) 1990 (before my shelf crashed) or 2013 (after my shelf crashed.)

[RubinHighlander]

If I had to have the Church tell me the priesthood ban was a BS social construct, would I rather hear it in 1970 (before my mission)...

A-freakn-men and whoamen to that!!!

[didyoumythme]

I agree with the responses so far and will ads my 2 cents that I see no way that a person could go down the rabbit hole and come out with the same testimony. I think the majority of people who actually take the blinders off, follow logic to the end, and consider the ramifications stop believing most of the traditional Mormon doctrines. They may hold on to a very nuanced perspective (that is not Mormonism) that lets them participate without much discomfort, but I don’t know how people do that.

The evidence is too compelling in my opinion. I try to talk to people who claim to know it all and stay, but I always find that they don’t really know the details. Unfortunately, the devil is in all the details.

[1smartdodog]

Really depends on how far you go down the hole. Like others have said most never go very deep. If you go all the way down and spend anytime thinking about it I would think it takes some kind of delusion to keep a testimony of the one true church. Maybe 1% of people would do that

[ap1054]

Thank you all for your comments. They're much appreciated.

What do you all think regarding why Teryl and Fiona stay, as well as Bushman, Mason, Prince etc.? Certainly these all have been down the rabbit hole. I've listened to as many interviews with these folks as I can (which I enjoy doing because extemporaneous replies, I believe, are often more truthful and reflective of their stances compared to what they publish) and (IMO) Mason has a pretty nuanced faith and the Givens certainly have a shelf - polygamy being the main item on that shelf. Based on Dehlin's recent interview with Prince, he has some interesting ways of dancing around Mormon truth claims.

And does anyone have any insight on why Quinn maintains his convictions as he claims he does?

[MerrieMiss]

Thank you all for your comments. They're much appreciated.

What do you all think regarding why Teryl and Fiona stay, as well as Bushman, Mason, Prince etc.? Certainly these all have been down the rabbit hole. I've listened to as many interviews with these folks as I can (which I enjoy doing because extemporaneous replies, I believe, are often more truthful and reflective of their stances compared to what they publish) and (IMO) Mason has a pretty nuanced faith and the Givens certainly have a shelf - polygamy being the main item on that shelf. Based on Dehlin's recent interview with Prince, he has some interesting ways of dancing around Mormon truth claims.

And does anyone have any insight on why Quinn maintains his convictions as he claims he does?

I don't know much about some of those people, but from what I have heard from Bushman and Prince I think that because they are older (and experienced a different kind of Mormonism - I think they both came from less intense Mormon families and backgrounds; I know that Bushman grew up outside of Utah) and have over all had a very positive experience with it, can easily choose to stay with something they can acknowledge as very flawed. In the Dehlin interview Prince was asked about his experience with white, affluent, male privilege within the church and Prince said he had not considered it (episode 894, somewhere around minute 24) which is absolutely mind boggling if that it is true that he has never considered it. A few years ago I went to hear Bushman speak and he said that when it was all said and done Mormonism was his home and his tribe and he chooses to stay because of that.

What surprises me more are the younger people like Mason (and the like at BCC) who stay. I can't imagine how positive their experiences have been, particularly for their children, as the church has become more stringent, conservative, and less fun than it was fifty or seventy-five years ago. I have no idea how they can stay and subject their kids to it. The gymnastics at play on blogs like BCC or in Mason's work are not only amazing, but somber as well.

[RubinHighlander]

What do you all think regarding why Teryl and Fiona stay, as well as Bushman, Mason, Prince etc.?

I think they are the exception, not the rule. They are also popular figures with potential revenue stream in the game. Maybe they have something to prove. It seems they have carved out a super special spot in the realm of the super special narrative of the saints of the latter days. It's an interesting niche they have there, both socially/tribally and some financially. In the tribe they are not the cheifs, but more like the witch doctors? I wonder if there's just a smaller percentage of NOMs that get off on staying in while still knowing the inconvienient truths. Struggling TBMs looking for reasons to still believe will look to these educated people and it saves them from having to take a deep dive down the rabbit hole; maybe they figure the folks who wrote all those books and are still in did it for them.

[crossmyheart]

They've hit the first level of appoligetics, are oknwith it, and assume theyve reached the bottom.
I know thats what i did for a long time. The BOA doesnt need to be a literal translation, the scroll was an instrument to inspire. Evolution is totally compatible with lds belief.....for my mission and my 20s i seriously thought i "knew" the issues and was ok.

I lived at that level for well over a decade. I thought I had read the deep doctrine and had explored the outer limits of the issues enough to consider myself quite knowledgeable. It makes me cringe to think about how smart I thought I was back then.

But then a big crisis came into my family. Myself, my TBM mother and my TBM sister all decided to turn in our temple recommends over it. We didn't go far down the rabbit hole of learning, but saw the-man-behind-the-curtain so to speak. All 3 of us had this light bulb moment when we realized it was all just made up and the leaders just did whatever they wanted and that doctrine didn't matter.
However, guess what? I was the only one who followed through. When faced with the thought of losing all that they had believed in, and especially with losing the community, they both caved and went back to the fold and put even larger blinders on. They will be eternally stuck with their heads in the sand and I am the apostate who fell away when times got tough. I have heard epithets of "even the very elect will be deceived" ever since. Especially now that I am down the rabbit hole and out on the other side.

My statistics? 1/3 left, 2/3 stayed.

My NOMish DH will forever be on the fence. He loves and supports me, but has no interest in learning the deep dark secrets. He just wants to have the familiar community, a place to belong and somewhere for the kids to learn morals. Hence we are mostly inactive...

Moral of the story? I have left but cant leave. Which explains my Avatar.

[didyoumythme]

Thank you all for your comments. They're much appreciated.

What do you all think regarding why Teryl and Fiona stay, as well as Bushman, Mason, Prince etc.? Certainly these all have been down the rabbit hole. I've listened to as many interviews with these folks as I can (which I enjoy doing because extemporaneous replies, I believe, are often more truthful and reflective of their stances compared to what they publish) and (IMO) Mason has a pretty nuanced faith and the Givens certainly have a shelf - polygamy being the main item on that shelf. Based on Dehlin's recent interview with Prince, he has some interesting ways of dancing around Mormon truth claims.

And does anyone have any insight on why Quinn maintains his convictions as he claims he does?

From what I have heard from the Givens, they don’t hold to almost any of the truth claims (in the traditional sense). Teryl acknowledges the problems, and seems to be holding to the idea that the organization holds the ‘keys of the priesthood’. This is the main purpose of the church in his mind...to be steward to the Keys. I don’t think he blames anyone for leaving, but prob stays because it’s his community...and he sells them lots of books.

[slavereeno]

My NOMish DH will forever be on the fence. He loves and supports me, but has no interest in learning the deep dark secrets. He just wants to have the familiar community, a place to belong and somewhere for the kids to learn morals.

Wow, this is very much like my situation...

I have a friend who remains TBM-ish he has read all of the published Joseph Smith Papers books. He would say that he has been down the rabbit hole, but I would disagree. He has become very "Cafeteria" on a lot of things, but still holds on the the first vision as being true.

We all know that emotion beats logic, always. Its just the way humans are wired, so unless a person can digest the logic enough to turn it into emotion, the logic will never really surface. Many people who question start with an emotional reason to do so. I had logically deduced some 15 or more years ago that the Book of Abraham was a phony, but I stayed and payed and testified for more than a decade after that. Then when I was a minor demon in a stake presidency, some of the things I witnessed stirred emotions in me that gave me enough reason to re-evaluate prior issues. Only then, did the shelf break.

If they are happy with the bread and circuses provided by the masters, they will remain blind.

[hiding in plain sight]

Great conversation.

My siblings are all fully into the church and know some, if not many of the issues with the church, if at least a superficial level.

I think for the majority of mormons who are aware, they know that there is a rabbit hole. But in reality they have only peeked over the edge and not gone down to the bottom. Or even the first ledge.

So I think it is a minority of mormons who study deeply and try to understand all of the issues and get very deep into the rabbit hole.

I can only speak from my own experience. I would look into issues once a year for a couple decades. So I was fully aware that there could be tough questions. But in looking back, I never really jumped all the way in until my son left the church.

So I think that a good majority of those who truly go down the rabbit hole AND are doing this with true intent (i.e., they want truth more than they want to be right) ultimately get it.