PRRI: America’s Changing Religious Identity

[Jeffret]

Esteemed research and survey institution PRRI released their latest finding about the changing nature of religions identity in America. After surveying 101,000 people in all 50 states they "The American religious landscape is undergoing a dramatic transformation."

Here is the study itself: America’s Changing Religious Identity

Here is a Salt Lake Tribune article on it, particularly from a Mormon perspective: Survey: ‘Christian America’ dwindling, including white evangelicals

Another Salt Lake Tribute article on it, specifically about Mormons: Mormons are still younger and more conservative than other believers, but they’re having fewer kids and getting less Republican

There are a number of really interesting findings in this report. I'll mention a few.

White Christians are now a minority in the country. Less than 50% of the population identify as such.

White Evangelicals are in decline from 23% to 17% over the decade. A few decades ago, the conservative churches were exclaiming that the liberal churches were doing it wrong and not giving people what they craved because the liberal churches were in decline. The reality was that the decline was only delayed. The Southern Baptists have recognized for a couple of decades that their decline is a crisis. The Catholics have been declining in the US and many place in the world. Their priestly shortage is getting dire. The Evangelicals were holdouts, still maintaining strength, but not they've experienced significant decline.

The Mormons are kind of the oddity. They've remaining constant at about 2%. Though if the most recent annual reported numbers from the Church continue, they may be starting to experience a slide.

Utah is just barely dominated by Mormons at 51% and is not the most religiously homogenous state.

"There are 20 states in which no religious group comprises a greater share of residents than the religiously unaffiliated."

The generational shift is amazing. 12% of those 65+ are religiously unaffiliated (the "nones", or "none of the above). 38% of those 18-29 are "nones". In the past, a number of people have left church in early adulthood only to return as they started settling down with a family. That pattern seems to be fading. At a recent BSA Roundtable discussion (outside Utah) talking about religion in a scout's life, leaders commented that many of today's youth are raised in families who don't participate in organized religion.

My state, Colorado, has a high degree of religiously unaffiliated, 33%.

Many more interesting things fascinating things in the study and the related analysis.

[Jeffret]

Related is Jana Riess's article from a few months back about a survey of Mormon Millenials: 10 things to know about Millennial Mormons

Mostly the results are pretty good for Mormons, but a couple of things caught my attention.

They're more racially diverse than their parents but still extremely white.

They grew up with fewer siblings and they are having fewer kids.

Nearly 3/4 of them feel it is OK to sometimes refuse a Church calling.

Many tithe on net income.

Many ignore General Conference.

They are much more politically balanced than their parents.


The PRRI study showed rates holding constant for Mormons. Many of the other items in this Next Mormons survey show good reason for Mormons to hope for the younger generation. If I were a church leader, though, there are some things here that could be cause for concern. To some degree, they sound a little like they're starting to approach their church kind of the way American Catholics do theirs. It's going to hard to sustain the devotion if that's the case. A mixed bag.

[oliver_denom]

It looks like there are two things holding the church around 2% of the population:

1) Mormons are having more children than average, and are more likely to be married. The entire program of the church is built around this model where people are married young, and the entire force of institutional power is spent on retaining those kids, creating generational legacies.

2) Unlike most of the other religions, the church aggressively recruits.

Because of this, Mormon decline will probably lag all other groups. Instead of leaving the church in their early twenties, marriage and children will delay that until a person's 30's or 40's. Since there is a constant influx of new members, there will first be a slow down in growth before there's a visible decline in the population overall. The fact that the numbers in the survey are the same as 2011 is evidence of that. We've reached the level of flat growth.

In 2011 the church reported a membership of 6,144,582 in the United States. In 2016, the same year as this survey, they reported 6,592,195. That's a growth rate of about 1.5% per year, which far exceeds the national population growth of .7%. In other words, the church's membership percentage of the population in these surveys should be showing growth, not the same.

If it's true, that Mormonism is simply lagging other religions, then they won't feel the declines reported here for other religions until ten years from now.

[Just This Guy]

If it's true, that Mormonism is simply lagging other religions, then they won't feel the declines reported here for other religions until ten years from now.

So you are swaying that yet again, Mormonism is 20 to 30 years behind the curve on everything...

[Jeffret]

Agreed, Oliver. A few more points.

Even with it's large family size and aggressive recruiting the member's self-reporting rate is staying constant at 1.9% (rounded to 2% in much of the materials). They're definitely having significantly larger families than most Americans and poring tons of money and effort into recruiting, yet that's just keeping them at a constant rate with regards to the general population.

I doubt the birth rate in the general population will fall significantly more, yet the Church's is.

At 2%, fluctuations in Mormon adherents are about within the margin of error, until they get substantial.

if the Church's own reported numbers are accurate and are indicative of a trend rather than a blip, Church growth is in a slowdown and may start to hit a decline before too many years. Pretty thorough charts and graphs here: Wikipedia:]The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints membership history. Growth rates have been in a slow, but definite decline since the late 80's. Since 2004, the wild swings have dropped off, to more stable, consistent numbers. In the last few years, the growth rate has declined at a pretty consistent, fairly significant rate. Last year the Church grew at only a 1.59% rate.

This is the Church's worldwide growth rate and the Church recruits heavily around the world. The Church is experiencing significant numbers of convert baptisms other places in the world, not so much in the U.S. And keep in mind that it is the U.S. and Salt Lake City in particular that drive the Mormon Church around the world.

In the U.S., the Church's own numbers probably indicate it is just keeping up with U.S. growth rate. That is probably almost entirely driven by births to Members of Record, which several things show to be in decline. My guess is that internally the Church actually has numbers that show the Church has started to decline in the U.S. Probably not significantly at this point, but the totals the past few years suggest that.

By no means do I think the Church is about to implode. It's got a pretty solid core and productive retention policies and behaviors. I doubt we'll see a decrease as big as with the Evangelics over the past decade, where their representation in the population dropped 26%. But, I think we're in the beginnings of a soft slump.

[Give It Time]

If it's true, that Mormonism is simply lagging other religions, then they won't feel the declines reported here for other religions until ten years from now.

So you are swaying that yet again, Mormonism is 20 to 30 years behind the curve on everything...

As I was hitting "respond" and waiting for the computer to do its thing, it came to me this is very true. Since, Mormonism doesn't feel the decline, it doesn't feel the need to change. It's kind of chicken and egg. Although, what Oliver says is probably the very reason for the slow decline. I'm pretty sure both my parents lost their testimonies when I was fourteen. I was the youngest of five children. Pretty much everyone here can attest to the difficulty of leaving when pretty much the entire family believes. So, the church does have a brilliant plan in place. Create a populous next generation. Rear them in the church to create a populous next generation. By the time they lose their testimony in mid-life, they are stuck.

I know many people lose their testimonies when they are younger, but my personal observation is that people try to have faith until that shelf just gets too heavy somewhere around mid-life.

[2bizE]

A few thoughts:
1) What is the difference between a Christian and an evangelical?
2) I think there are a lot of 35-55 year olds who have lost their testimony or interest in religion. When their parents, the baby boomers die off, I think many will slip into inactivity. A few may quit all together, but most will just stop attending.
3) I think Mormonism will feel a soft decline over the next 20 years. The church will continue to report inactives in the total membership, so the growth rate will be the only honest statistic to track. I also think the activity rates will decline even more.
4) Mexico was and still is a fast growing country. However, on the latest census, a significant number of lds population did not identify as lds. I wonder what that means. Mexico is currently able to sustain itself financially. I think it still does anyway.
5) Church growth in Africa is exploding, however, it may never generate the revenue to sustain itself, so it will rely on the decreasing tithes of the U.S.. . Expect many tax-paying church companies to be created to meet this demand.

[Jeffret]

1) What is the difference between a Christian and an evangelical?

Christian is a general category covering many different denominations and approaches. Evangelical Christianity is one particular branch, composed of many different churches, institutions, beliefs, and people. Mormonism is quite a bit different in that there is a single institution and one person who speaks for it. (Mostly. If you exclude the offshoots, but they're not generally statistically significant even compared to Mormonism, which is a minor player. Almost everywhere.)

4) Mexico was and still is a fast growing country. However, on the latest census, a significant number of lds population did not identify as lds. I wonder what that means. Mexico is currently able to sustain itself financially. I think it still does anyway.

I doubt there is any region in the world that is truly able to sustain itself financially, outside of Utah. I suspect that Mexico can manage its incremental cost, but without all of the originating infrastructure, materials, leadership, and bureaucracy in Utah, it couldn't manage.

[deacon blues]

A few thoughts:
4) Mexico was and still is a fast growing country. However, on the latest census, a significant number of lds population did not identify as lds. I wonder what that means. Mexico is currently able to sustain itself financially. I think it still does anyway.

Where would I find this latest census?

[2bizE]

A few thoughts:
4) Mexico was and still is a fast growing country. However, on the latest census, a significant number of lds population did not identify as lds. I wonder what that means. Mexico is currently able to sustain itself financially. I think it still does anyway.

Where would I find this latest census?

I read the report earlier in the year and it was discussed on some blogs.
Here is some info about it on Wikipedia.

Mexico is home to the largest body of members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS Church) outside of the United States. The Church claimed 1,197,573 individuals in 2010. In the 2010 census, 314,932 individuals reported belonging to the LDS Church.[1]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Chu ... _in_Mexico

[Hagoth]

This is the best news I've heard in a long, long time:

Almost every Christian denomination in the U.S. shows signs of growing diversity as white Christians, once the majority in most mainline Protestant and Catholic denominations, give way to younger members, who tend to be of different races, according to a vast study released Wednesday by the Public Religion Research Institute.
And American evangelicals — once seemingly immune to the decline experienced by their Catholic and mainline Protestant neighbors — are losing numbers and losing them quickly.