The Next Wave of Mormon development

[no1saint]

Hello everyone, this is my first topic post under the new NOM.

I was thinking, the Church has seen some big impact leaders with visions over the years interspersed amoung what I would refer to as caretaker Prophets. I see the following as big vision and big impact leaders:

1 JS - Founder
2 BY - Survive and thrive. Separated officially the Church from politics but left enough threads direct to HQ to ensure generations of influence.
3 DOM - First wave of PR magic into ideal American family/Church archetype, international expansion and establishing stronger roots through a massive global bricks and mortar project including temples with the new film style.
4 SWK - International outreach with large area and regional conferences, press conferences, visits to world leaders, large temple building projects, 3 hour block implementation and correlation, allowed the bean counters to dictate Church architecture....form followed function.
5 GBH - Outward looking and PR campaign 2. Reached out to the world, press conferences with open questions with the media worldwide, change the aesthetic of the Church from budget and folskey to wealthy, prosperous, prestigious, establish the Conference Centre, the largest wave of temple building ever, a new logo, changes to the brand of the Church, relaxed Church disciplinary procedures. Reformed, expanded and marketed Mormon Inc.

So, who will be the next visionary leader and what changes might come?

[Just This Guy]

I would ey:

6. TSM. Undoing most if not all of the goodwill that GBH had created for the church. Fear mongering turned up to 11. Policies of exclusion and hate broadcast on a national and international level. Stagnation of growth and repeated media embarrassments.

[Rob4Hope]

Russell Nelson scares the CRAP outta me!

[Hagoth]

Welcome back, no1saint!

The more I learn about church history the more I realize that the church that was "restored" by Joseph Smith pretty much ended with the death of Joseph Smith. It's been a different sort of wacky circus since then.

I think the next wave will be conformity for conformity's sake. The church's doctrines are kind of falling apart in light of the revelations coming from the internet, the essays, etc. so they're trying to set up a system where milk always trumps meat in pretty much the way paper trumps rock - just because. There's a lot of talk about obedience lately and when GAs talk about obeying God they are talking almost exclusively about obeying the Q15. "Church" has become synonymous with "God." The lesson manuals have been going through a decades-long process of dumbing down and warnings about dangers of doubt are relentless. We read scriptures, pray and attend the temple almost purely as an act of devotion and, despite talk about liberating members from relentless meetings, the meetings continue relentlessly. Things like indexing are replacing fun activities and the older scouts are moving away from enjoying activities to just more priesthood meetings.

Personally, I think that another generation will see kids checking out in greater and greater numbers unless someone finally gets the message that they would be much better off with an organization that serves the people, not a bunch of people who live to serve the organization.

So the big question is, are we heading toward a future incarnation of the church that consists of piles of riches guarded by curmudgeonly old coots or a church that will learn a lesson and turn itself inside out and put its people first, to flourish rather than wither? I think a generation of curmudgeons will have to die off before we can even make a forecast.

[Give It Time]

I think the reason a lot of us stay is for important family milestones. I know many of us stay to keep marriages intact. However, if the baby blessings, baptisms and confirmations and weddings are so entrenched in Mormonism and priesthood, I think a lot of us will be hanging on simply for those events. Water will eventually wear away and shape the densest stone. If the church truly wants to get rid of us, then all they need to do is change those family events so they are no longer so exclusively controlled by the church and do away with one true church claims. Keep those things and they're stuck with us. If they're stuck with us, that means we wear them down.

I can see this church becoming very much like the Catholic Church, given enough time. Major loss of influence and power. Dwindling numbers in the pews. A few faithful who still sit in the pews. Others are there to support a spouse, raise children, for culture reasons or business connections. Many, many people will get so they are Mormon in name only and attend only on the Sunday closest to Pioneer Day (because everyone knows any mainstream Christianity church is going to put us away with even the most simple and basic Christmas and Easter). The doctrines may stay the same, but if people are sane, they'll eventually realise this is just what it is and accept it.

[2bizE]

I'm guessing Dalin Oaks and sueing everyone and everything that doesn't look to him like freedom of religion. The church will turn into a church of Nut jobs that are always complaning about mistreatment.

[Brent]

One of the hallmarks of the Church is palatable change. A prophetic, charismatic leader is not what the Church wants, that's why you need 15 votes to do anything. I believe Spenser W. Kimball was unique in that he made the case for inclusion of blacks and probably played the "I'm the Prophet get on board" card. The idea of a single, loud voice grabbing the reins and being the Prophet is anathema--that's why, personally, I believe there's a "crisis" out there somewhere waiting to happen. Most likely this crisis will center around LGBQT issues and the PR problems it creates. As Millennials become a larger and larger percentage of Church membership they're going to bring with them very relaxed attitudes about gender and attraction. Some time in the future that polarization will create a rift and someone is going to try to bridge it or break it. 15 guys aren't going to be able to agree and someone will decide "I'm the Prophet, what I say goes...what? Are they going to fire me?" and pull a trigger.

I would offer "children of same-sex couples" as an excellent example of how a personal prejudice somehow became revelation. Could have been a lean on the editor of the GHoI to make a change led to a rewrite which when noted had to be patched and then, well, who got that revelation and where do we find it in the D&C or special proclamations or over the pulpit at GC? It just happened followed by, "yeah, it's revelation, that's it!"

The next development will be a power struggle.

[Corsair]

Some actuarial individual did a demographic study of the likely prophets over the next 20 years based strictly on the age of the apostles and their order in the quorum. Apostles have a history of clean living, staying active, and top notch medical care. Here is the graphic. In short, here is the upcoming projection:

1. Thomas Monson: 2008-2021
2. Dallin Oaks: 2021 -2025
3. Jeff Holland: 2025 - 2029
4. Dave Bednar: 2029-2050

This list was put together in 2015 before it was widely known about Monson's health so even Nelson has a shot. Uchtdorf is one step ahead of Bednar, but he is also twelve years older.

I would say that David Allan Bednar is the most likely transformative prophet since he is projected to be around age 69 when he gets the keys to the Holy of Holies. This is a younger age than any prophet since Heber J. Grant who was 62 at his ordination as prophet. Imagine Bednar's ideas writ large and that is the likely next big transformation.

[oliver_denom]

I would say that David Allan Bednar is the most likely transformative prophet since he is projected to be around age 69 when he gets the keys to the Holy of Holies. This is a younger age than any prophet since Heber J. Grant who was 62 at his ordination as prophet. Imagine Bednar's ideas writ large and that is the likely next big transformation.

Bednar is a true believer. When he gets into office, he'll go about enforcing his morality which largely consists of obedience and conformity. He has a big heart and he loves people deeply, but we have to remember that he considers strict punishments and rule keeping as love's highest expression. He'll be a merciless hard ass, but will do it for our own good.

Perhaps more than his love for the church will be his love and devotion for the position.

[Verse 3: KING GEORGE]
You’ll be back like before
I will fight the fight and win the war
For your love, for your praise
And I’ll love you till my dying days
When you’re gone, I’ll go mad
So don’t throw away this thing we had
Cuz when push comes to shove
I will kill your friends and family to remind you of my love

[Not Buying It]

When President Hinckley called Elder Bednar to the apostleship (perhaps not coincidentally after Elder Bednar, then president of BYU-I, named a building after him), he knew he was calling someone young enough in all likelihood to be President of the Church someday. And Elder Bednar has proven to be rather cold, uncaring, rigid and narrow in his views enough times that I curse President Hinckley for it. President Hinckley will thereby have a lasting impact on the Church, and it won't be a good one.

Elder Bednar will not be the charismatic, transformative, innovative leader that the Church so desperately needs. None of the Big 15 will. The process is set up to screen out anyone who is transformative and innovative, and seems to do a pretty good job of eliminating anyone charismatic as well (although somehow President Uchtdorf slipped through).

Church leadership will follow the same doomed course at least through 2050.

[no1saint]

Hi Hagoth, good to see your thought provoking posts again.

It's interesting to see what the effect GBH had on future developments after his Q12 appointments, as well as the appointments under TSM. The unknown factor with succession in the Church is the personal health of apostles in the line of succession. I like the visual, but here has to be some adjustments now and probably in the near future. If TSM doesn't see 2020, how long will Nelson RMN serve? 5 years? then DHO? He's looking increasingly frail, another 5 years or less? It's hard to know who will survive Apostolic Survivor.

Retrenchment seems the most likely outcome regardless of who is at the helm, especially given the rise of nationalism and inward looking politics. How does the Church survive a time when anti American is on the rise again? I too am wary of what RMN will do and what Bednar might prioritise as well. There is a feeling that an Uchtdorf Presidency would be better, but the way the modern Church operates under the combined authority of the FP and Q12, at least for larger doctrinal and policy based issues, how effective can he be as a perceived moderates when the rest of the two quorums are dominated by conservatives.

Either way, with the rise of it's global real estate portfolio and the African expansion, what direction will the next three Prophets take the Church and it's members?

[oliver_denom]

Church leadership will follow the same doomed course at least through 2050.

I also think the 2050's will be the next transformative years for the church. Even if Bednar (65) dies young, there are four others roughly the same age to succeed him in order to get up to 2050: Anderson (65), Rasband (66), Stevenson (61), Renlund (64). What are the chances that at least one of them will be alive in 33 years? I think its pretty good odds, but not far beyond that.

However, there's a caveat. What if there are advances in medical science which extends life well beyond current standards? Imagine if we have a medical breakthrough in the 2030's that could extend human life another 15 years? David Bednar might be in a position to shape the church well beyond his time, having stepped in a just the right time to appoint gobs of apostles who will live longer than any others before them. It would take decades for the Bednar wave to even out.

But just think of more basic changes in the church, like the elevation of the first non-Caucasian apostle. If a non-white apostle were appointed tomorrow, then it would be 2050 at the minimum before the church sees its first non-white leader. That's over 70 years after the lifting of the priesthood ban, and over 80 years after the end of racial segregation in America. If the next vacancy is filled by someone's brother-in-law from Provo, then it could be 100 years. It's crazy how slowly change comes to the church. We'll all be dead before it's caught up.

[Not Buying It]

Church leadership will follow the same doomed course at least through 2050.

I also think the 2050's will be the next transformative years for the church. Even if Bednar (65) dies young, there are four others roughly the same age to succeed him in order to get up to 2050: Anderson (65), Rasband (66), Stevenson (61), Renlund (64). What are the chances that at least one of them will be alive in 33 years? I think its pretty good odds, but not far beyond that.

President Bednar would likely be followed by Elder "Give Joseph a Break" Anderson or Elder "Look at Me I'm an Apostle and I'm Pretty Awesome" Rasband? It's gonna take a lot longer for transformational leadership than just waiting for President Bednar to pass on.

[oliver_denom]

President Bednar would likely be followed by Elder "Give Joseph a Break" Anderson or Elder "Look at Me I'm an Apostle and I'm Pretty Awesome" Rasband? It's gonna take a lot longer for transformational leadership than just waiting for President Bednar to pass on.

The story of the next 30 years has already been written. It will be up to either Nelson or Oaks to write the next twenty years after that when they choose a replacement for Monson. What are the chances that they'll pick a charismatic, progressive, game changing leader? Well...it's not zero.

[wtfluff]

The story of the next 30 years has already been written. It will be up to either Nelson or Oaks to write the next twenty years after that when they choose a replacement for Monson. What are the chances that they'll pick a charismatic, progressive, game changing leader? Well...it's not zero.

Not zero? So... Something like: .0000000001 "Chance" ?

[Emower]

I think Lorenzo Snow might deserve a place in your list of prophets with a big vision and big impacts. He bucked the tithing system, implemented a different system, and seemingly browbeat everyone into paying up by tying it to the temple, a system which has continued until today.

[Corsair]

In 2020 we will have the bicentennial of the First Vision. The direction of the church will partially be revealed then. I think the church actually wants to get away from some of the bigger celebrations it had in the past since those don't really work any longer. There was a lot of fanfare over the 1980 Sesquicentennial of the church. 100 years of the Salt Lake Temple was in 1997 and 2005 was the 200th birthday of Joseph Smith.

I think the church will actually tone down the First Vision bicentennial because it will invite more scrutiny than they would want in this day. Too many people might enjoy the 1832 version a bit too much which does not quite support the narrative the church enjoys in the 1838 version.

[Thoughtful]

In 2020 we will have the bicentennial of the First Vision. The direction of the church will partially be revealed then. I think the church actually wants to get away from some of the bigger celebrations it had in the past since those don't really work any longer. There was a lot of fanfare over the 1980 Sesquicentennial of the church. 100 years of the Salt Lake Temple was in 1997 and 2005 was the 200th birthday of Joseph Smith.

I think the church will actually tone down the First Vision bicentennial because it will invite more scrutiny than they would want in this day. Too many people might enjoy the 1832 version a bit too much which does not quite support the narrative the church enjoys in the 1838 version.

A letter was read in sacrament meeting that they are not celebrating anniversaries anymore. I think they stir up too many questions.

[no1saint]

In 2020 we will have the bicentennial of the First Vision. The direction of the church will partially be revealed then. I think the church actually wants to get away from some of the bigger celebrations it had in the past since those don't really work any longer. There was a lot of fanfare over the 1980 Sesquicentennial of the church. 100 years of the Salt Lake Temple was in 1997 and 2005 was the 200th birthday of Joseph Smith.

I think the church will actually tone down the First Vision bicentennial because it will invite more scrutiny than they would want in this day. Too many people might enjoy the 1832 version a bit too much which does not quite support the narrative the church enjoys in the 1838 version.

A letter was read in sacrament meeting that they are not celebrating anniversaries anymore. I think they stir up too many questions.

Interesting, how will that affect the 200 anniversary of the Church in 2030. Of course by then the COB will be governed by other people, so policy/prophesy can easily change. The first vision one would be very interesting to navigate for them.

[1smartdodog]

I think the system will not allow anymore transformative figures. It is obvious to me it weeds out anyone that is different. Perhaps the only thing that will change the church is if the revenue somehow diminishes greatly. Even then I am not sure it could transform much beyond what the leaders at the time think. It may just crash and burn. or just limp along for decades. The church had its moment however brief it was. I think the future is bleak, unless some vitality is brought back, but like I said the system does not allow that.

Here is a thought, make the youngest apostle prophet each time. Might make for some interesting times.