The Flywheel Effect

[Brent]

One of the tough things about exiting the Church is the desire for retribution, to see the Church hurt in the way we’ve been hurt. Unfortunately, you need to have a long term view on this; it ain’t happening next week. The long term view is the slow decline of the Church is underway but in the end there’s too much tradition, culture and money behind the Church for it to go extinct. There will never be a loud “bang” and fire and wailing. The Church is in the process of stabilizing, of reaching a zero growth situation and The Church will do exactly what it did with Joseph’s wives—deny, obfuscate, and commit sins of omission so members never know. Part of sustaining the illusion is to provide members with sufficient cover to hide behind, hopeful and murky information that if challenged can be smoke screened out of sight. The Internet put the brakes on Joseph’s wives and “translation” issues and eventually the internet will catch up to church growth numbers.

Another thing to remember is that the Church is the quintessential American “Boot Strap” organization. In the US it sells the “Promised Land” and the “divinely inspired Columbus” and Constitution. Dang we’re lucky to be here. The question is how do you sell that in India? Or Denmark? Or China? One of the initial draws of the Church overseas is being part of the American Dream (Perpetual Education Fund anyone?) but it’s also a drawback, a change of allegiance and often fundamental culture. The Church’s foothold overseas is pinned to 2nd and 3rd world countries where retention numbers are weak, weak, weak. The Church has to supplant local tradition and culture to root and grow, the question is can a uniquely American Church do it. A huge hunk of LDS identity is built on US history and primacy. Granted in central and south America you can make a tenuous Book of Mormon connection but there’s the real possibility that lands to the south will tap out.

The rolling stone is not growing, it’s stabilizing and that to the mind of corporate leadership is stagnation. Remember that—lack of growth is stagnation—because stagnation is the root of decay. The Church is working toward a state of stagnation and to avoid it the only thing that can happen is the Multi-Level Marketing style push for new members that has always happened in the US. “Every Member a Missionary” is literally the definition of MLM marketing, the hard sell is what Americans are used to and becoming immune to. The Church is grinding to a slow halt, one it won’t admit. That’s OK. If the wounded, lied to, tricked you wants to see it bleed and writhe you’re out of luck because it ain’t going to happen. There will be no death rattle. No implosion. Just a quiet running out of steam and the flywheel of Utah will keep the motor spinning long after we’re all dead so don’t waste too much energy on beating on a dying horse that won’t ever pass away. Be happy to know that in the end, instead of being the next “great world religion” the Church will simply be Jehovah’s Witnesses with endless cash.

[Corsair]

Be happy to know that in the end, instead of being the next “great world religion” the Church will simply be Jehovah’s Witnesses with endless cash.

I'm doing my best to make sure that it's not any more of my cash going forward. I agree with your thesis. I don't think there are any good strategies left to move the LDS church forward in a big way. Plus, they can rely on a narrative of a "falling away" and added emphasis on the Parable of the Ten Virgins encouraging everyone to keep their testimony lamps full of oil.

[blazerb]

The rolling stone is not growing, it’s stabilizing and that to the mind of corporate leadership is stagnation. Remember that—lack of growth is stagnation—because stagnation is the root of decay. The Church is working toward a state of stagnation and to avoid it the only thing that can happen is the Multi-Level Marketing style push for new members that has always happened in the US. “Every Member a Missionary” is literally the definition of MLM marketing, the hard sell is what Americans are used to and becoming immune to. The Church is grinding to a slow halt, one it won’t admit.

One sign of the stagnation is the recent emphasis on "multi-generational members" rather than telling us that without converts the church would "wither on the vine." It's clear that money going to SLC is decreasing, but as you noted the leaders are adaptable.

I'm doing my best to make sure that it's not any more of my cash going forward. I agree with your thesis. I don't think there are any good strategies left to move the LDS church forward in a big way. Plus, they can rely on a narrative of a "falling away" and added emphasis on the Parable of the Ten Virgins encouraging everyone to keep their testimony lamps full of oil.

I'm preparing myself to hear a lot more messages on "relying on God" which in Mormondom is a euphemism for doing what the leadership tells you.

[Brent]

The.marketer in me feels "trust in the Lord and his anointed" is the sort of catchphrase they'll use.

[FiveFingerMnemonic]

An innate fantasy lies in most people for apocolyptic conclusions. As fowler stage 3, that fantasy is manifest in the 2nd Coming. As a fowler stage 4, it flips 180 degrees to a desire for the institution to crumble. Same programming, different subroutine.

That said, I look at the old soviet union and the Perestroika. Did anyone see the final collapse coming ahead of time? Then again political structures and governments are different than religions.

[Corsair]

An innate fantasy lies in most people for apocolyptic conclusions. As fowler stage 3, that fantasy is manifest in the 2nd Coming. As a fowler stage 4, it flips 180 degrees to a desire for the institution to crumble. Same programming, different subroutine.

That said, I look at the old soviet union and the Perestroika. Did anyone see the final collapse coming ahead of time? Then again political structures and governments are different than religions.

The nature of revolutions is paradoxical. No one ever sees them coming and both leaders and citizens are often surprised, even as leaders are trying telling everyone to calm down. However, after the revolution has already occurred, people will look back and see all the signs that revolution was not only coming, but virtually inevitable.

I agree with your assessment of Fowler Stage 3 and Stage 4. May I offer that in Stage 5 there is a desire for everyone to calm down, live happily, and not end up in a revolution. Thus the cycle human nature turns back on itself

[didyoumythme]

Plus, they can rely on a narrative of a "falling away" and added emphasis on the Parable of the Ten Virgins encouraging everyone to keep their testimony lamps full of oil.

This was my first thought as well - "Even the elect will be deceived". This is how members will justify the stagnation. It may only hit home when someone close to them that they admire and trust leaves the church (but I have seen that TBM family have an uncanny ability to compartmentalize and put iron walls around critical thought).

It will be interesting to see if they actually announce further decreased numbers next year, or if they will redefine membership numbers to show an increase.

[Rebel]

I would say with only .7 of growth which is the latest figure we have reached the stagnation point !!! Soon we may reach the decline point but I suspect that children of record Baptisms will keep the church above that point for another few years !!

[Corsair]

I would say with only .7 of growth which is the latest figure we have reached the stagnation point !!! Soon we may reach the decline point but I suspect that children of record Baptisms will keep the church above that point for another few years !!

I would keep in mind that we increasingly cannot trust number that are published from the LDS church in conference. I get the sense that they want to be as accurate as possible, but don't want to show a decrease in membership either. Certainly we have no easy way to verify the membership population or weekly attendance. These numbers are known to the LDS church, but not published externally. That's a fair policy as a private organization. But their intrinsic problem is that virtually anyone with time and internet could exactly verify the number of wards, stakes, and branches in the church. Noting the growth of LDS units against the published membership numbers will inevitably imply the stagnation.

[oliver_denom]

I would say with only .7 of growth which is the latest figure we have reached the stagnation point !!! Soon we may reach the decline point but I suspect that children of record Baptisms will keep the church above that point for another few years !!

I would keep in mind that we increasingly cannot trust number that are published from the LDS church in conference. I get the sense that they want to be as accurate as possible, but don't want to show a decrease in membership either. Certainly we have no easy way to verify the membership population or weekly attendance. These numbers are known to the LDS church, but not published externally. That's a fair policy as a private organization. But their intrinsic problem is that virtually anyone with time and internet could exactly verify the number of wards, stakes, and branches in the church. Noting the growth of LDS units against the published membership numbers will inevitably imply the stagnation.

The proof is in self reported religious affiliation. If you don't claim Mormonism as your religion, then you aren't Mormon. It doesn't matter what church records say or what their attendance numbers show.

[Corsair]

The proof is in self reported religious affiliation. If you don't claim Mormonism as your religion, then you aren't Mormon. It doesn't matter what church records say or what their attendance numbers show.

Yes, it's a problem. Brazil has one notable example.

[Thoughtful]

The proof is in self reported religious affiliation. If you don't claim Mormonism as your religion, then you aren't Mormon. It doesn't matter what church records say or what their attendance numbers show.

Yes, it's a problem. Brazil has one notable example.

Oh, for the love!

[MoPag]

Soon we may reach the decline point but I suspect that children of record Baptisms will keep the church above that point for another few years !!

I don't know about that. The birth rates are falling even in Zion. http://www.deseretnews.com/article/8656 ... rends.html And this is from Deseret News too.

[Hagoth]

I wonder if we'll be seeing a resurgence of persecution rhetoric as growth crosses the line into decline.

[Brent]

I wonder if we'll be seeing a resurgence of persecution rhetoric as growth crosses the line into decline.

That's an interesting idea. How do you gloss over a zero growth rate for the "one and only true church" which is rolling forth to fill the world? Turning the vision inward and expelling the world might have worked but now...good question.