LDS unit growth 1st half 2017

[oliblish]

I found some stats on the first half of 2017 that I thought were interesting. I found them here:

http://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com/

numbers came from comments here: https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogI ... 546&bpli=1

Worldwide: +99 units (+165 wards and -66 branches)
US: -1 unit (+22 wards and -23 branches)
UT: +22 units (+21 wards and +1 branch)
US excluding UT: -23 units (+1 ward and -24 branches)
Outside US: +100 units (+143 wards and -43 branches)
Africa: +107 Units (+77 wards and +30 branches)

Growth continues to slow. If not for Africa, the number of congregations dropped by 8 units worldwide.

I think the most surprising thing is that the US excluding UT dropped by 23 units.

Positives:
Worldwide: stakes increased by 30, districts: -5
A number of branches have been upgraded to wards

[redjay]

It would be interesting to know the activity rates in Africa. If they can have 50% plus one year after baptism the church could still grow for the foreseeable future. The church's stance on homosexuality appeals there. If the activity rates persist and the church can hold out for the next 20 years as Africa becomes more developed then the African church could become strong in terms of number and income. Let's see if the old white boys will accept them into the club.

[wtfluff]

It would be interesting to know the activity rates in Africa. If they can have 50% plus one year after baptism the church could still grow for the foreseeable future. The church's stance on homosexuality appeals there. If the activity rates persist and the church can hold out for the next 20 years as Africa becomes more developed then the African church could become strong in terms of number and income. Let's see if the old white boys will accept them into the club.

Historically speaking... It ain't gonna happen.

South America in the 80's and 90's is akin to what Africa is today. Retention rates there are extremely dismal, and nowhere near 50%.

[oliver_denom]

It looks like they're converting branches to wards and possibly splitting / creating smaller stakes. At least, that's what I've seen in my neck of the woods. Our stake went from 8 wards to 6 and the neighboring stake is currently at 14 units and they're talking about splitting it into two.

[Corsair]

Positives:
Worldwide: stakes increased by 30, districts: -5
A number of branches have been upgraded to wards

The positives you pointed out are what leadership and the faithful will concentrate on. My area in Arizona turned 4 stakes into 5 last year in anticipation of actual demographic growth. It simply feels like we are only given the best version of the numbers and lack the depth to see reliable trends going forward.

Back in the 1980s we had the wildly optimistic narrative from Rodney Stark how the LDS church was on track to have 250 million members within a century based on a couple years of solid growth. I wonder if any underlying numbers existed that should have told us a more accurate story.

[redjay]

in europe we are still waiting on the prophesied "second harvest".


looks like the opposite is happening (church dying in the EU)

but maybe it's just a trial of my faith